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Politics, politics, politics
- Thread starter markysimmo
- Start date
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Luka Modric
There is a risk MPs could "steal Brexit from the British people" if Theresa May's proposed deal is rejected, a senior cabinet minister has warned.
Liam Fox said there was "natural Remain majority" in Parliament and any attempt to overturn the 2016 referendum vote would be a "democratic affront".
It came after MPs voted to exert more influence should the PM's deal fall.
Ministers will again battle to win over MPs to Theresa May's withdrawal deal after three government defeats.
Security will be the focus of the second of five days of debate in the Commons, where Tuesday's marathon session extended into the early hours.
The government is due to publish its Brexit legal advice at 11:30 GMT.
Ministers agreed to release the advice in full after MPs voted to find the government in contempt of Parliament for ignoring a Commons vote demanding publication.
The PM's deal has been endorsed by EU leaders but must also be backed by the UK Parliament if it is to come into force. MPs will decide whether to reject or accept it next Tuesday, 11 December.
The UK is due to leave the European Union on 29 March, 2019. Ministers say that if MPs reject their deal they increase the chances of the UK leaving without a deal, or not leaving the EU at all.
Ministers will plough on with attempts to win over MPs on Wednesday, with eight hours of debate on the security and immigration aspects of the withdrawal agreement.
Meanwhile, Mrs May is expected to continue trying to convince small groups of her MPs to back the plan in private meetings.
Mrs May will face Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn at prime minister's questions, at noon, before the Brexit debate gets under way.
Warnings falling on deaf ears?
Senior Brexiteers in the cabinet have warned that the UK may not leave the EU if Mrs May's deal is voted down.
International Trade Secretary Liam Fox suggested the PM's deal was the only way of guaranteeing the UK leaves the EU, as scheduled, on 29 March 2019.
"When you are in prison and someone offers you a key, you take it," he told a committee of MPs.
While a no-deal exit would be "disorderly", he suggested the UK being kept in the EU against the will of the British people would be even more damaging.
"I think that there is a real danger that the House of Commons which has a natural remain majority may attempt to steal Brexit from British people which would be a democratic affront."
Environment Secretary Michael Gove said the deal on the table was in the best interests of the country.
"Everyone has to think at this momentous moment - do we want to ensure that Brexit gets over the line? Do we want to deliver on the verdict of the 17.4 million people who voted to leave the European Union because if we don't back the prime minister, we risk there being no Brexit and that I think would be a fatal blow to faith in democracy."
But a former Conservative chief whip has said he expects the PM to lose the vote.
Mark Harper, who backed Remain in the referendum told the Daily Telegraph he would vote against the withdrawal agreement, and predicted the deal would be rejected by 80 of his party colleagues.
He urged the prime minister to renegotiate the deal, insisting the current plan would leave the UK worse off.
Why did the defeats matter?
First, the government lost a bid to have the legal advice issue dealt with separately by a the Privileges Committee of MPs.
In a second defeat, ministers were found in contempt of parliament and forced to concede they would have to publish that advice in full, having previously argued this would break convention and was not in the national interest.
Most significantly, the third defeat was over changes to the parliamentary process in the event that the Commons votes down Mrs May's deal.
Instead of being confined to merely "taking note" of what the government tells them, MPs would also be able to exert more influence by voting on what they want the government to do next.
This could potentially see Parliament wrest control of the Brexit process from ministers if, as expected, MPs push for a "Plan B" alternative to Mrs May's deal and seek to prevent any chance of Britain leaving the EU without a deal in place.
Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve, who brought the motion, told Channel 4 News it would "allow the UK time to consider its options", including re-starting negotiations with the EU or giving the public the final say.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable said: "The Commons is now very likely to defeat the government again next week on the Brexit deal, at which point the country must be given a 'People's Vote', and asked to choose between the deal or remaining in the EU."
How did the PM try to win over MPs?
When she finally kicked off the debate about the deal itself, Mrs May insisted the UK would enjoy a "better future" outside the EU.
She said the "honourable compromise" on offer was "not the one-way street" many had portrayed it to be and that the EU had made it clear that the agreement would not be improved on.
"I never said this deal was perfect, it was never going to be. That is the nature of a negotiation," she said.
"We should not let the search for a perfect Brexit prevent a good Brexit."
And what was the reaction?
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said it was a bad deal for the UK and that his party would seek a vote of no confidence in the government if it was thrown out by MPs.
"I hope and expect this House will reject that deal," he said.
"At that point, the government has lost the confidence of the House. Either they have to get a better deal from the EU or give way to those who will."
Nigel Dodds, leader of the DUP in Westminster, said the agreement "falls short" of delivering Brexit "as one United Kingdom" and would mean entering "a twilight world where the EU is given unprecedented powers over the UK".
Ex-Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson dismissed the deal as a "paint and plaster pseudo-Brexit" and said its supporters would be "turning their backs" on the 17.4 million Leave voters.
The leader of the SNP at Westminster, Ian Blackford, said the "cold, hard truth" was that the deal represented "a moment of self-harm in our history".
"It is not too late to turn back," he said. "Fundamentally, there is no option that is going to be better for our economy, jobs, and for our communities than staying in the European Union."
However, in closing the debate shortly after 01:00 GMT on Wednesday, Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay argued the deal would bring "real changes which will improve the livelihoods of people up and down the country".
Brexit: Could Commons defeats peel off some rebels?
Laura Kuenssberg
Down is up. Up is down. Black is white. And white is black. Friend is foe. Foe is friend. Stop me now, or else I'll go on forever.
But the point is this - the prime minister has had a terrible day today as the government made history in two excruciating ways.
Ministers were found to be in contempt of Parliament - a very serious telling off - and the government had a hat trick of defeats - the first time since the 1970s that's happened.
As you'd expect too, MP after MP after MP rose after Theresa May's remarks to slam her deal as Tory divisions were played out on the green benches, with harsh words exchanged.
But in this topsy-turvy world, the overall outcome of the day for Mrs May's big test a week tonight might have been not all bad.
The amendment from Tory Remain rebel Dominic Grieve is, on the face of it, a strait jacket for Mrs May - a way that MPs can more easily push the government around.
So far, so disaster. Except it could actually peel off some rebels on both sides... possibly.
Former Remain rebels now have a possible route to get what they want if the PM's plan is rejected, as there is a possible - I emphasise the possible - way to get a vote with a majority for a Norway-style agreement or, less likely, a push for another referendum.
That won't go unnoticed by Brexiteers too, who may feel (some of them at least) that Mrs May's deal might be their best bet in that case, rather than risk that softer, squidgier Brexit.
It's possible therefore that today's shenanigans have made it less likely that the prime minister will face a terrible defeat next week because a few wobbly rebels on both sides might come in line.
It's also worth noting the involvement of several former, normally loyal, cabinet ministers such as Sir Oliver Letwin.
He has often been used as a fixer by the chief whip, whispers suggest. It's perfectly possible that his moves today are completely unrelated.
But also not impossible that somehow today's result has been influenced by conversations about finding the prime minister a softer landing.
Suggestions there was any kind of collusion were described as something that's too rude to write here. But nothing much happens around here at the moment without motive and suspicion being questioned.
Liam Fox said there was "natural Remain majority" in Parliament and any attempt to overturn the 2016 referendum vote would be a "democratic affront".
It came after MPs voted to exert more influence should the PM's deal fall.
Ministers will again battle to win over MPs to Theresa May's withdrawal deal after three government defeats.
Security will be the focus of the second of five days of debate in the Commons, where Tuesday's marathon session extended into the early hours.
The government is due to publish its Brexit legal advice at 11:30 GMT.
Ministers agreed to release the advice in full after MPs voted to find the government in contempt of Parliament for ignoring a Commons vote demanding publication.
The PM's deal has been endorsed by EU leaders but must also be backed by the UK Parliament if it is to come into force. MPs will decide whether to reject or accept it next Tuesday, 11 December.
The UK is due to leave the European Union on 29 March, 2019. Ministers say that if MPs reject their deal they increase the chances of the UK leaving without a deal, or not leaving the EU at all.
Ministers will plough on with attempts to win over MPs on Wednesday, with eight hours of debate on the security and immigration aspects of the withdrawal agreement.
Meanwhile, Mrs May is expected to continue trying to convince small groups of her MPs to back the plan in private meetings.
Mrs May will face Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn at prime minister's questions, at noon, before the Brexit debate gets under way.
Warnings falling on deaf ears?
Senior Brexiteers in the cabinet have warned that the UK may not leave the EU if Mrs May's deal is voted down.
International Trade Secretary Liam Fox suggested the PM's deal was the only way of guaranteeing the UK leaves the EU, as scheduled, on 29 March 2019.
"When you are in prison and someone offers you a key, you take it," he told a committee of MPs.
While a no-deal exit would be "disorderly", he suggested the UK being kept in the EU against the will of the British people would be even more damaging.
"I think that there is a real danger that the House of Commons which has a natural remain majority may attempt to steal Brexit from British people which would be a democratic affront."
Environment Secretary Michael Gove said the deal on the table was in the best interests of the country.
"Everyone has to think at this momentous moment - do we want to ensure that Brexit gets over the line? Do we want to deliver on the verdict of the 17.4 million people who voted to leave the European Union because if we don't back the prime minister, we risk there being no Brexit and that I think would be a fatal blow to faith in democracy."
But a former Conservative chief whip has said he expects the PM to lose the vote.
Mark Harper, who backed Remain in the referendum told the Daily Telegraph he would vote against the withdrawal agreement, and predicted the deal would be rejected by 80 of his party colleagues.
He urged the prime minister to renegotiate the deal, insisting the current plan would leave the UK worse off.
Why did the defeats matter?
First, the government lost a bid to have the legal advice issue dealt with separately by a the Privileges Committee of MPs.
In a second defeat, ministers were found in contempt of parliament and forced to concede they would have to publish that advice in full, having previously argued this would break convention and was not in the national interest.
Most significantly, the third defeat was over changes to the parliamentary process in the event that the Commons votes down Mrs May's deal.
Instead of being confined to merely "taking note" of what the government tells them, MPs would also be able to exert more influence by voting on what they want the government to do next.
This could potentially see Parliament wrest control of the Brexit process from ministers if, as expected, MPs push for a "Plan B" alternative to Mrs May's deal and seek to prevent any chance of Britain leaving the EU without a deal in place.
Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve, who brought the motion, told Channel 4 News it would "allow the UK time to consider its options", including re-starting negotiations with the EU or giving the public the final say.
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable said: "The Commons is now very likely to defeat the government again next week on the Brexit deal, at which point the country must be given a 'People's Vote', and asked to choose between the deal or remaining in the EU."
How did the PM try to win over MPs?
When she finally kicked off the debate about the deal itself, Mrs May insisted the UK would enjoy a "better future" outside the EU.
She said the "honourable compromise" on offer was "not the one-way street" many had portrayed it to be and that the EU had made it clear that the agreement would not be improved on.
"I never said this deal was perfect, it was never going to be. That is the nature of a negotiation," she said.
"We should not let the search for a perfect Brexit prevent a good Brexit."
And what was the reaction?
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said it was a bad deal for the UK and that his party would seek a vote of no confidence in the government if it was thrown out by MPs.
"I hope and expect this House will reject that deal," he said.
"At that point, the government has lost the confidence of the House. Either they have to get a better deal from the EU or give way to those who will."
Nigel Dodds, leader of the DUP in Westminster, said the agreement "falls short" of delivering Brexit "as one United Kingdom" and would mean entering "a twilight world where the EU is given unprecedented powers over the UK".
Ex-Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson dismissed the deal as a "paint and plaster pseudo-Brexit" and said its supporters would be "turning their backs" on the 17.4 million Leave voters.
The leader of the SNP at Westminster, Ian Blackford, said the "cold, hard truth" was that the deal represented "a moment of self-harm in our history".
"It is not too late to turn back," he said. "Fundamentally, there is no option that is going to be better for our economy, jobs, and for our communities than staying in the European Union."
However, in closing the debate shortly after 01:00 GMT on Wednesday, Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay argued the deal would bring "real changes which will improve the livelihoods of people up and down the country".
Brexit: Could Commons defeats peel off some rebels?
Laura Kuenssberg
Down is up. Up is down. Black is white. And white is black. Friend is foe. Foe is friend. Stop me now, or else I'll go on forever.
But the point is this - the prime minister has had a terrible day today as the government made history in two excruciating ways.
Ministers were found to be in contempt of Parliament - a very serious telling off - and the government had a hat trick of defeats - the first time since the 1970s that's happened.
As you'd expect too, MP after MP after MP rose after Theresa May's remarks to slam her deal as Tory divisions were played out on the green benches, with harsh words exchanged.
But in this topsy-turvy world, the overall outcome of the day for Mrs May's big test a week tonight might have been not all bad.
The amendment from Tory Remain rebel Dominic Grieve is, on the face of it, a strait jacket for Mrs May - a way that MPs can more easily push the government around.
So far, so disaster. Except it could actually peel off some rebels on both sides... possibly.
Former Remain rebels now have a possible route to get what they want if the PM's plan is rejected, as there is a possible - I emphasise the possible - way to get a vote with a majority for a Norway-style agreement or, less likely, a push for another referendum.
That won't go unnoticed by Brexiteers too, who may feel (some of them at least) that Mrs May's deal might be their best bet in that case, rather than risk that softer, squidgier Brexit.
It's possible therefore that today's shenanigans have made it less likely that the prime minister will face a terrible defeat next week because a few wobbly rebels on both sides might come in line.
It's also worth noting the involvement of several former, normally loyal, cabinet ministers such as Sir Oliver Letwin.
He has often been used as a fixer by the chief whip, whispers suggest. It's perfectly possible that his moves today are completely unrelated.
But also not impossible that somehow today's result has been influenced by conversations about finding the prime minister a softer landing.
Suggestions there was any kind of collusion were described as something that's too rude to write here. But nothing much happens around here at the moment without motive and suspicion being questioned.
If they have a proper referendum this time it will be the best and only way forward.
As an aside, imo no one over the age of 75 should be allowed to take part.
here, here Sir, fully agree.
although i would personally lower it to 70, maybe even 65?
glorygloryeze
Ian Walker
The ageism that's crept into this thread and Brexit debates in general is hilarious
StephenH
David Ginola
It was 65 and I changed it.
I’m 65, but I don’t think/feeI have a ‘dog in fight’ unlike my grandkids who don’t have a voice yet!
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StephenH
David Ginola
The ageism that's crept into this thread and Brexit debates in general is hilarious
Some are too old to care and some still think we are still at war with Germany
monkeybarry
Ian Walker
How about "of non state pension age".
Mainly just to rile up a gender issue.
Mainly just to rile up a gender issue.
glorygloryeze
Ian Walker
Some are too old to care and some still think we are still at war with Germany
Some are the opposite, as i'm sure you can agree
StephenH
David Ginola
So can anyone explain the fuss over the legal advice to me?
Admittedly I've only read the BBC's summary, but it appears as if this is all stuff we already knew.
Admittedly I've only read the BBC's summary, but it appears as if this is all stuff we already knew.
I think the vote will be a lot closer than everyone thinks, Unite are apparently against another referendum and say Brexit needs to happen in one way or another. Lots of Labour MP's are in heavily leave voting constituencies.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-labour-against-backing-second-eu-referendum
And I don't really get why the backstop is such a big deal unless people want a return to the hard border. Both sides will want to get out of it otherwise NI has a competitive advantage being out of the EU but almost full access in parts to the single market. I dont think we are going to impose a huge customs clampdown in the Irish sea right away but obviously there will need to be something.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-labour-against-backing-second-eu-referendum
And I don't really get why the backstop is such a big deal unless people want a return to the hard border. Both sides will want to get out of it otherwise NI has a competitive advantage being out of the EU but almost full access in parts to the single market. I dont think we are going to impose a huge customs clampdown in the Irish sea right away but obviously there will need to be something.
Danishfurniturelover
the prettiest spice girl
Just got back from Africa, the poverty shocked me did not expect that much of it. Do not know if it is my confirmation bias but I could not help the best thing we could do for Gambia and the poor parts of Africa is to actually trade with these countries.
Was on a boat trip one day on a roots tour, basically a tour about the slave trade. The was a chap on the boat a local black African who had a blue high vis saying EU overseer on his vest. He actually started talking to me because I was wearing some shorts with the spurs written on it. Did not ask him what he was doing there but I could not help think a little bit of aid, basically buying people off rather then trying to help them help themselves.
Anyway, I wont be replying in this thread, not because I dont believe in Brexit because I still do and always will. The fact that leave is still in the 40% range after 3 years of the most full on project fear I have seen in 50 years of politics pleases me to know others feel the same way. I do wonder at the next referendum which I feel remain are bound to win whether leaves views will be taken into account like we have been told since the last vote that remains views should be respected.
Anyway, I am going to leave the discussion, I wish you guys all well I really do because we are all family. As long as none of you have done weird brick with kids or animals, I will love you all for life, you are my brothers.
*The only political thing I want to discuss at the moment is why the Shoreham By Sea air diaster has still not had its court case and how the son of a bitch of a pilot is still walking free, but I think the is a thread on that somewhere I will try and dig out. People in this town could do with closure from that.
Was on a boat trip one day on a roots tour, basically a tour about the slave trade. The was a chap on the boat a local black African who had a blue high vis saying EU overseer on his vest. He actually started talking to me because I was wearing some shorts with the spurs written on it. Did not ask him what he was doing there but I could not help think a little bit of aid, basically buying people off rather then trying to help them help themselves.
Anyway, I wont be replying in this thread, not because I dont believe in Brexit because I still do and always will. The fact that leave is still in the 40% range after 3 years of the most full on project fear I have seen in 50 years of politics pleases me to know others feel the same way. I do wonder at the next referendum which I feel remain are bound to win whether leaves views will be taken into account like we have been told since the last vote that remains views should be respected.
Anyway, I am going to leave the discussion, I wish you guys all well I really do because we are all family. As long as none of you have done weird brick with kids or animals, I will love you all for life, you are my brothers.
*The only political thing I want to discuss at the moment is why the Shoreham By Sea air diaster has still not had its court case and how the son of a bitch of a pilot is still walking free, but I think the is a thread on that somewhere I will try and dig out. People in this town could do with closure from that.
SpurMeUp
Jimmy Cantrell
Were you staying by the coast? Is it right Gambia the country was drawn on a map by an Englishman measuring the range of British gun boats along the river Gambia? It's a tiny strip of a country only 50 km wide or something. If you travel in land people are poor (even more so) but its clean, healthy. Going into the countryside was the best part for me. Seeing little village schools, happy people, real Africa...and the nature all around...it was awe inspiring. Africian cities on the whole are not pretty places though.
If I had time, I would love to travel in Africa. Most of it is off the beaten track, and out of the cities stunningly beautiful.
Gutter Boy
Tim Sherwood
McCluskey is an old Bennite leaver, like Corbyn and McDonnell
No one gives a brick about the backstop. Apart from the 10 DUP members who prop up the government. If May hadn't ballsed up about the GE, this could have been sorted 18 months ago. The big problem is GB being bound in the customs union/level playing field, with no way of being able to exit it.
I'll be interested to see what amendments the government propose to try and get the bill to pass. Something like making it illegal to pay the EU any money while we're in the backstop, or something to make it completely unpalatable to the EU too.
Baleforce
Ron Henry
I knew things were degrading but I didn’t think it would be noticeable after just a week away.
Danishfurniturelover
the prettiest spice girl
Yeah we were staying by the coast, koloi(might have spelt that wrong) lovely people so friendly. We did the roots tour which was pretty hard going seeing what went on with them. We did a safari which was amazing because you get the boat from North gambia across the river to south gambia, only took 40 minutes, then you drive 20 minutes into Senegal which is great to have another stamp on the passport. Saw loads of animals in their natural habitat.
We then paid to do a private bird tour with a local expert, he drove us around and one of the places he drove us down the were mud huts by the side of the road and villages with one water pump in it for everyone to use. It was a humbling experience, makes you happy for what you have and made me want to push my son more because of the opportunties he has in this country that they dont have in Africa. The views we saw on this bird watching trip were amazing it was like a nature programme were you saw these great vistas across fields that looked like traditional Africa.
It was a package holiday dirt cheap just £395 each bed and breakfast, but we made sure we had a day by the pool and then a day going out and doing stuff. The were people in the hotel a lot of northerners who just went for the sun which is their right, but they would walk down to the main strip and back to the Hotel and not do anything else, was a little sad I thought. Me and the wife are both quite good in that though we like to sit by a pool, we do a day doing stuff and then a day at the pool.
We did meet some people from Manchester the men came to do bird watching as the are so many birds in Gambia and the women came to teach local women sewing. As in Gambia it is only the men who really work, apparently it has only been a democracy for 2 years. I really would love to do some volunteering some where in the world. As you know I have a terminal illness but I still have my health at the moment and I really feel like giving back to people who have not had opportunities.
Would I go back? well yes but also the are other places in the world to visit. The wife wants to do Cuba next November and in January 2020 I am going to China for stem cell therapy for 2 months which hopefully will help me a lot, though is going to cost a fcuking fortune.
One final thing when we caught this ferry from one side of Gambia to the other everyone on the coach got told to sit up top on the deck. I turned to Lucy said no way I will burn up there, she agreed, so we went and sat down with the locals,literally the only white faces. The smiles you got off this poor people, so happy and nice to you. I played around with a young boy who seemed to be fascinated by me. They were dressed in their sunday best(it was sunday) and i thought how people are the same the world over that they just want to be happy to go and visit their families and friends.
The was a young lady sat opposite us, pretty little thing and she had a small plastic beach ball that looked a little tacky by western standards, but I wondered how long she took to save up for it and who she was going to be giving it to. She kept looking across at Lucy and her feet because she had toe nail polish on and the African women did not have that on their toes, their nails were quite well worn, it reminded me of how we are all the same all around the world. It made me feel bad when I spend money on crap when some have to save up for such simple things as a ball.
I thought that the next time I hear of a ferry going down in some African country I wont dismiss it so quickly because it will resonate with me more how the people on it are real people with lives, loves and dreams. Travel really is good for the soul, a council estate kid from London who usually just had package holidays round Europe has had his mind expanded by his wife, because over the last 15 years I have got to see more of the world and it has expanded my mind and given me a better understanding of the world.
Sorry for the long reply.
AuroRaman
Chris Armstrong
SpurMeUp
Jimmy Cantrell
Sorry for quoting. But we need to get this thread to 1000 pages!
Traveling allows you perspective for sure. Good to step outside your comfort zone. I stayed in Cuba for 2.5 months. Rented an appartment in Havana and was supposedly doing research out there. Bringing things back to politics/economics, it was insightful stepping out of a liberal economic, democratic country into a Communist state (was almost 20 years ago!). It gave me perspective on how government structure affect peoples' everyday lives. We presume we live in a free societry and there isn't a super structure that affects us here in the UK. But while we are freer politically here, there are economic, societal, political structures that condition how we live. Its not until you step outside a liberal economic democracy that you even notice them.
In Cuba there are or were stronger social bonds, a greater sense of community, collective education and support. Old people weren't left by themselves, people had to work together to get by. But there is real frustrations mostly caused by a lack on money. More than political freedom, people miss economic freedom. Yet there are things the west can learn from communism. And I think Popularism is moving towards some of them.
