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Politics, politics, politics
- Thread starter markysimmo
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ringo
Tim Sherwood
There is no majority for a referendum. And I think Corbyn is happy to run the clock down hoping that no deal chaos will lead to a GE which - with the leavers in the constituencies happy to vote Labour post No Deal - Labour will win. Unfortunately if that is his strategy it is not going to work because - with suitable PR - the country will find it just as easy to blame Corbyn for a No deal result as it will May. While the leavers will be persuaded not to support Labour due to risk of getting some soft negotiated EU deal. May won't fight another GE -and so we would probably get the same result as before.
But maybe Corbyn doesn't really want to be PM and is happy to be leader of the opposition for a while yet. It seems like it sometimes. He is fairly ineffectual as leader of the opposition, and the strategists close to him, don't seem to be doing that great a job either. I don't see his route to leadership. What kind of manifesto could he stand on that would satisfy both the leave and stay element of his party?
But maybe Corbyn doesn't really want to be PM and is happy to be leader of the opposition for a while yet. It seems like it sometimes. He is fairly ineffectual as leader of the opposition, and the strategists close to him, don't seem to be doing that great a job either. I don't see his route to leadership. What kind of manifesto could he stand on that would satisfy both the leave and stay element of his party?
Corbyn doesn't want a no-deal Brexit. He wants a General Election, but a soft-Brexit could also get one of those, as there might be enough Tory hard-Brexiters to go against the government in that instance -- and the only way they can get rid of May is to take down the government.
Are you sure that's true? Someone posted a deep dive on the per-constituency data here and it seems that it's virtually impossible for Labour to increase its seats significantly because of the way Leave/Remain breaks down per constituency.
ringo
Tim Sherwood
I think what you say is true with an Article 50 extension. But I think some Labour party strategists may believe that if we go out on a No Deal, in the post no deal flux, there will be a) a way to to engineer a GE b) that the Labour Leavers - then in a No Deal situation - will be happy to vote Labour again. I'm not convinced that would be the case, though.
But if it is not that I really don't know how he thinks he is going to get a GE, which is why sometimes I think he is happy to Brexit and sit on the opposition benches for the foreseeable future until his party gets rid of him -eventually. Because I can't see the circumstances arising in which the country elects him as PM.
But if it is not that I really don't know how he thinks he is going to get a GE, which is why sometimes I think he is happy to Brexit and sit on the opposition benches for the foreseeable future until his party gets rid of him -eventually. Because I can't see the circumstances arising in which the country elects him as PM.
In the last election, we had the same certainty about Labour being finished for a generation, gonna lose 100+ seats etc. If it was so certain that Corbyn could never be PM, May would call an election tomorrow, win a working majority and have a lot easier job. But they don't want an election because they think that they will lose (forget all the "national interest" nonsense those disingenuous bastards talk about; their only interest is self-interest).
ringo
Tim Sherwood
I don't think Corbyn could ever become PM because there are too many persuasive interests lined up against him. Blair was sufficiently centre ground. No way are the majority of the proprietors of the main media allowing Corbyn to become PM. Nor most of the business community. When was the last time we had a government of the socialist flavour and policies that Corbyn supports? Even if many people believed that they were socially just and fair policies - they would still be persuaded against voting for him in the GE campaign. Security, economics - his backstory is too vulnerable. Another more "acceptable" Labour leader, maybe. But never Corbyn.
Well, I'm not going to wish you much luck with that bet!
I don't think there are any political certainties at the moment. Everything lined up against Corbyn's Labour last time and they went from 20 points behind in the polls to taking away May's majority in about 2 months. Don't under estimate how good Labour's campaign will be on the ground, they have an army of activists and a sh1t load of data to work with. And this time, Labour will fight an attacking campaign instead of a defensive one, with the central office actually working with the leadership rather than against them (as in the last GE).
Basically, we'll see...
ringo
Tim Sherwood
Well, I'm not going to wish you much luck with that bet!
I don't think there are any political certainties at the moment. Everything lined up against Corbyn's Labour last time and they went from 20 points behind in the polls to taking away May's majority in about 2 months. Don't under estimate how good Labour's campaign will be on the ground, they have an army of activists and a sh1t load of data to work with. And this time, Labour will fight an attacking campaign instead of a defensive one, with the central office actually working with the leadership rather than against them (as in the last GE).
Basically, we'll see...
Also, if you are a Labour supporter of Corbyn and his policies, it might not be the best time to get elected. We're on the tail end of long and sustained bear run. Trump is pumping the US, running up debt and applying policies which may produce short-term results but may damage the global economy in the mid-term to long term. China is due a slowdown and/or revolution. The world is due an economic shock. If you are a Labour supporter, a weak minority Tory government might not be such a bad thing to see out Brexit negotiations and aftermath and ride out any forthcoming economic global stalling.
I'd sooner a Labour government in to mitigate the damage of an economic downturn, at least from the point of view of the least well off -- rather than have a government that says "well, time to slash those benefits and public services to get us out of this mess..."
Yet they still ended up with fudge all seats. It's only because the SNP are fervently anti-Conservative that's there's any kind of opposition at all.Well, I'm not going to wish you much luck with that bet!
I don't think there are any political certainties at the moment. Everything lined up against Corbyn's Labour last time and they went from 20 points behind in the polls to taking away May's majority in about 2 months. Don't under estimate how good Labour's campaign will be on the ground, they have an army of activists and a sh1t load of data to work with. And this time, Labour will fight an attacking campaign instead of a defensive one, with the central office actually working with the leadership rather than against them (as in the last GE).
Basically, we'll see...
Yes, yes, right you are Scara...
How many seats do Labour have?
I believe it's only 4 more than Brown won, which was roundly ridiculed for being a pathetic showing.
Brown lost 97 seats, Milliband lost another 26. Corbyn gained 30 seats on a swing of 9.6% of the vote. Gaining that much on the swing means that lots more seats are potentially in play for Labour next time, because now there are lots of marginal seats that Labour can crack if they get it right. Which is why the Tories are sh1t scared of calling an election right now.
There are 48 seats where the Cons have a majority of less than 3000 (17 of them, it's less than 1000). Labour are in 2nd place in 41 of those 48 seats. Obviously, they have their own marginals to defend as well, but if the overall polling favours Labour come election day, they can easily pick up enough seats to become the largest party (I don't think they'll win a majority, but an outside chance).
I don't think they'll get near a majority.
What will then be interesting to see is how they react to having to bend over for a bunch of loons representing a poverty-stricken brickhole in order to pass bills. Given their numbers, I don't see the SNP being bought as cheaply as the DUP or as easily.
It's one thing having a similar cause in opposition, another entirely to have to govern with their help.
I don't think Labour would get a majority either -- only an outside chance of one if the Tories were to split over Brexit. Unlikely, but not impossible.
As for the SNP, that largely depends on Brexit imo. If Labour produce a soft-Brexit that Scottish Remainers can live with, then the SNP aren't able to make a case for independence in the near future. Policy wise, they will line up with Labour on quite a lot.
I believe Labour policy is to put forward a queens speech and basically dare the SNP to go against it -- and then the SNP would have to explain to their voters why they are trying to get a Tory government over a Labour one (their other main case for independence, not being ruled by Tories from England). Aside independence, I'm not sure what concessions the SNP could/would leverage over Labour. It's not like a Corbyn government wouldn't be investing in Scotland. Mostly, I think they'd be pretty happy to go along with a Labour minority government.
Long way to go before this stage though haha. Brexit could still change a lot of the polling, in either direction imo.
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
Well, I'm not going to wish you much luck with that bet!
I don't think there are any political certainties at the moment. Everything lined up against Corbyn's Labour last time and they went from 20 points behind in the polls to taking away May's majority in about 2 months. Don't under estimate how good Labour's campaign will be on the ground, they have an army of activists and a sh1t load of data to work with. And this time, Labour will fight an attacking campaign instead of a defensive one, with the central office actually working with the leadership rather than against them (as in the last GE).
Basically, we'll see...
So if Im reading this right....
Labour, hamstrung by their own internal politics didnt fight as good a campaign as they could have, but they will this time.
And that they lost to an embarrassingly weak May/Tories is somehow a success because it was less-bad than under Brown (who performed similarly and was slated for it)?
And even after all that, chances are they would end up performing about the same again - and at best end up in the sort of situation May finds herself in now with the DUP.
Not trying to be difficult here - Im reading your posts and that seems to be the crux of it unless Im missing something.
And so Id have to ask, if thats what another GE election looks like - why is Corbyn so fixated on it? I would have thought undermining the government by rallying for another referendum, for example, would serve him better in both halting Mays plans and promoting his own image. If he could pull something like that together, for many he would have saved the day and Id assume go up massively in the polls. Then theres a GE...
No, you're not reading it right.
nayimfromthehalfwayline
Andy Thompson
As I read it, thats what Im seeing.
So what are you saying then - because I seem to be missing something.
So what are you saying then - because I seem to be missing something.