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Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

scaramanga said:
I understand how borders work. My point is that the EU will not put a binder between Ireland and NI, if the UK doesn't, as it's too politically sensitive. They will not want to be the end of any possibility of unification, they will not want to be the cause of violence and they will not want to be seen to be dumping a member in the brick, just to keep their bureauzone intact.
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The EU will absolutely put a border on NI if the alternative means that the integrity of the CU and SM is threatened.

Brexit is the UK's foly. Any fall out in NI or elsewhere and the blame will squarely be put on the UK.
 
scaramanga said:
It doesn't tell me anything I hadn't already read, plus a couple of digs at someone who I assume fudged his wife, given the level of obvious spite.

Either that or one of those that dislikes success. If it weren't for the age gap I'd suggest Digby-Jones bullied him at school - plenty clearly did.
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Ok so you knew that the UK is not actually that important a trading partner to ROI?

And the figures often quoted by leavers in this regard, actually demonstrate the UK's importance to the the ROI as a land bridge to the rest of the EU rather than as a trading partner.

Something that the ROI would be reluctant to lose... As it's the most convenient route to the EU, but NOT irreplaceable.

Fair play to you. I on the other hand didn't know that... I believed Brexiter's flimflam, that the UK was a huge trading partner for ROI.

Sooo... The question is if you knew that already... Why did you overstate the importance of trade with with the UK for ROI?
 
DTA said:
Ok so you knew that the UK is not actually that important a trading partner to ROI?

And the figures often quoted by leavers in this regard, actually demonstrate the UK's importance to the the ROI as a land bridge to the rest of the EU rather than as a trading partner.

Something that the ROI would be reluctant to lose... As it's the most convenient route to the EU, but NOT irreplaceable.

Fair play to you. I on the other hand didn't know that... I believed Brexiter's flimflam, that the UK was a huge trading partner for ROI.

Sooo... The question is if you knew that already... Why did you overstate the importance of trade with with the UK for ROI?
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We're their second highest trading partner after the US. Belgium (not sure why) is close behind, but past that it's a long way to the next.

We don't have to be the majority of their trade to be valuable, we are a very significant portion of it.
 
scaramanga said:
Yep, it's a vote of no confidence. The PM then sets a date for a GE of November 1st.
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I'm sure he will be savvy enough to outwit Boris the depiffle Johnson's great plan of calling a general election the day after we are due to leave.
 
DTA said:
The EU will absolutely put a border on NI if the alternative means that the integrity of the CU and SM is threatened.

Brexit is the UK's foly. Any fall out in NI or elsewhere and the blame will squarely be put on the UK.
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I don't think they will do anything that would end the possibility of unification forever and increase levels of sectarian violence.
 
DTA said:
I'm sure he will be savvy enough to outwit Boris the depiffle Johnson's great plan of calling a general election the day after we are due to leave.
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He really can't. The methods by which a government can be brought down are very clear
 
scaramanga said:
We're their second highest trading partner after the US. Belgium (not sure why) is close behind, but past that it's a long way to the next.

We don't have to be the majority of their trade to be valuable, we are a very significant portion of it.
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Valuable no doubt... Irreplaceable... Not even close. Especially with the opportunities Brexit presents ROI to replace us as the Transatlantic bridge to the EU.
 
DTA said:
Valuable no doubt... Irreplaceable... Not even close. Especially with the opportunities Brexit presents ROI to replace us as the Transatlantic bridge to the EU.
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That's not trade though is it? It's just moving stuff about. It has value - there are jobs in ports, handling, etc. But those making the profits will be the countries selling to the US through Ireland.
 
scaramanga said:
I don't think they will do anything that would end the possibility of unification forever and increase levels of sectarian violence.
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They would if the alternative would be to lose the integrity of the single market and CU.

Plus some would say that, hard Brexit makes unification more likely not less.
 
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scaramanga said:
That's not trade though is it? It's just moving stuff about. It has value - there are jobs in ports, handling, etc. But those making the profits will be the countries selling to the US through Ireland.
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That's not taking into account passporting, which I feel Dublin particularly would be in a hugely advantageous position.
 
scaramanga said:
I don't think they will do anything that would end the possibility of unification forever and increase levels of sectarian violence.
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On the contrary polls show an increased likelyhood of a border poll passing in the event of a hard border. Or did a year ago anyway.
 
DTA said:
I'm not sure the ROI would be so keen on reunification at this point in time. Apart from the financial aspect of it, at a time of Brexit flux. they would also have to deal with the sectarian issues that are at the moment the UK's problem. As the DUP etc, are unlikely to peacefully accept any poll that leads to Ireland uniting. That will take a few more generations before a peaceful transition would be in anyway possible. More likely that Scotland will leave the union via IR2 vote imho.

You maybe right about the wine though.
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The opposition even amoung moderate unionists is dwindling and brexit is accelerating this. If it is voted for, North and South of the border, it will likely be a long drawn out process. The EU will support this transition and soften the blow if the alternative is a breach of the GFA. It will not be simple for sure but it will be easier than falling out of some 750 treaties as the UK is about to do.
 
scaramanga said:
And during that time we will be able to move goods into the EU without regulation as I don't believe they'll put up a border
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Only illegally as the main arteries will get customs infrastructure. You can never block all the roads as there are too many, they couldn't even do that during the troubles. Ireland have been preparing for no deal from day one.
 
Rorschach said:
The opposition even amoung moderate unionists is dwindling and brexit is accelerating this. If it is voted for, North and South of the border, it will likely be a long drawn out process. The EU will support this transition and soften the blow if the alternative is a breach of the GFA. It will not be simple for sure but it will be easier than falling out of some 750 treaties as the UK is about to do.
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It's not the moderate unionists that would be the concern.
 
DTA said:
It's not the moderate unionists that would be the concern.
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In terms of violence certainly no but in a border poll they are the swing vote that will tip it.

NI business and farmers, a big portion of the DUP vote, are not happy that they have given away the winning lottery ticket that was the NI backstop. As you said previously, it is the UK government and the DUP that will be focus of their ire if it all goes to brick.
 
Rorschach said:
In terms of violence certainly no but in a border poll they are the swing vote that will tip it.

NI business and farmers, a big portion of the DUP vote, are not happy that they have given away the winning lottery ticket that was the NI backstop. As you said previously, it is the UK government and the DUP that will be focus of their ire if it all goes to brick.
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Would agree with all of what you have said, but would worry that the Orange B rigade etc will be ready to restart the violence if unification happens within the next few years
 
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