Politics, politics, politics (so long and thanks for all the fish)

[SpurMeUp]

It's a terribly inefficient setup caused by artificial barriers set up by the EU - the very opposite of free trade.

Yet the EU has more open external trade with non-EU nations than the US and other protectionist countries. And within the EU - as we are for a year longer - there is complete and total free trade. It is actually quite remarkable that so many nations have no impediments to trade in the EU. As a Tory and free-marketeer, you should welcome the trade benefits of such a setup. Nowhere else in the world has been able to achieve such a thing, and the EU remains the world's largest, and most valuable, free trade area.

 

[glorygloryeze]

If the European Union was only about trade, Brexit would not be happening..only someone blind to the political overeach and constant creep towards Political Union that is the EU cannot see that..

 

[SpurMeUp]

If people understood that the European Union was first and foremost about trade, Brexit would not be happening..only those blind to the realities of the EU who continue to fall for scaremongering believe in brexit

Some slight corrections above.

Things like an EU army give you the willies I know...but there is no EU army...yet you are racked by fear over it. I find that amazing. An eu army does not exist. What does exist is billions upon billions of pounds worth of free trade. When you buy salad from the supermarket it is due to the EU having free trade, allowing fresh food to flow in and out easily. Day to day the EU is first and foremost a customs union - a place where nations trade easily with each other. Don't believe all the nonsense about EU armies that are nowhere to be seen!

 

[glorygloryeze]

Some slight corrections above.

Things like an EU army give you the willies I know...but there is no EU army...yet you are racked by fear over it. I find that amazing. An eu army does not exist. What does exist is billions upon billions of pounds worth of free trade. When you buy salad from the supermarket it is due to the EU having free trade, allowing fresh food to flow in and out easily. Day to day the EU is first and foremost a customs union - a place where nations trade easily with each other. Don't believe all the nonsense about EU armies that are nowhere to be seen!

I didn't even bring up EU armies etc, you did that. I think we both know there is enough political machinery within the EU that doesn't need mention of the EU army (something that the EU's own main bigwigs, including the EU Commissioner constantly propose openly).
When one buys salad from the supermarket they could be from anywhere around the world, including the EU. That is the benefit of Free Trade and will likely continue to be post-Brexit.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I didn't even bring up EU armies etc, you did that. I think we both know there is enough political machinery within the EU that doesn't need mention of the EU army (something that the EU's own main bigwigs, including the EU Commissioner constantly propose openly).
When one buys salad from the supermarket they could be from anywhere around the world, including the EU. That is the benefit of Free Trade and will likely continue to be post-Brexit.

Are you sure salad could come from anywhere? Would you want to fly it in from the US (it couldn't come by boat obviously)? That would make your bag of salad cost 3 times as much and leave a larger carbon footprint. At the moment your bag of salad comes by truck from say Holland. In the future, it will probably be on an electric truck. At the moment, the truck doesn't stop at the border. If it needs to in the future, your salad will be less fresh and be more expensive. Nevermind that it is already more expensive because the pound has dropped because financial markets understand these simple realities and can see the potential harm to the UK economy. But they are all wrong too?

There are similar problems selling UK lamb to the EU. Or fish for that matter. Without free trade, there could be tariffs on lamb and fish that could cripple our native British lamb farming and some fishing industries. 10% on Lamb and its game over for a lot of farmers producing lamb in the UK.

These are the realities they don't tell you. You can try and argue them out. Maybe there is some potential to sell lamb elsewhere, but the arguments don't really stack up. You are better off saying look mate money aint everything. Lets focus on what is possible. Now this is the big problem for me - no one has a plan for what is possible post brexit. In short, we don't get anything positive back for all the potential losses. That is the biggest problem. I'd love you to correct me and tell me what positives we get back from leaving, but I've more chance of hearing big ben bong.

 

[scaramanga]

Yet the EU has more open external trade with non-EU nations than the US and other protectionist countries. And within the EU - as we are for a year longer - there is complete and total free trade. It is actually quite remarkable that so many nations have no impediments to trade in the EU. As a Tory and free-marketeer, you should welcome the trade benefits of such a setup. Nowhere else in the world has been able to achieve such a thing, and the EU remains the world's largest, and most valuable, free trade area.

It's not free trade if they insist on levelling the playing field. That's the opposite.

 

[scaramanga]

If the European Union was only about trade, Brexit would not be happening..only someone blind to the political overeach and constant creep towards Political Union that is the EU cannot see that..

Quite. The EU as a trading bloc works. The EU as a set of supranational set of restrictions and regulations hurts everyone.

 

[SpurMeUp]

Quite. The EU as a trading bloc works. The EU as a set of supranational set of restrictions and regulations hurts everyone.

What other example is there in the world that you’d prefer? Reality is the EU is one of the more open trade areas, relative to say the US. And for its members the EU facilitates completely free trade - internally - and externally with free trade agreements.

These are the details Boris, Russia, Farrage and Bannon didn’t want you to know. Instead they used scare tactics and abused national pride to gain power.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[scaramanga]

What other example is there in the world that you’d prefer? Reality is the EU is one of the more open trade areas, relative to say the US. And for its members the EU facilitates completely free trade - internally - and externally with free trade agreements.

These are the details Boris, Russia, Farrage and Bannon didn’t want you to know. Instead they used scare tactics and abused national pride to gain power.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

No it doesn't. The EU enforces conformity and removes any competitive edge. That's not free trade, it's the opposite.

 

[SpurMeUp]

No it doesn't. The EU enforces conformity and removes any competitive edge. That's not free trade, it's the opposite.

Whereas nation-states do not? Where in the world is your utopia?

 

[scaramanga]

What other example is there in the world that you’d prefer? Reality is the EU is one of the more open trade areas, relative to say the US. And for its members the EU facilitates completely free trade - internally - and externally with free trade agreements.

These are the details Boris, Russia, Farrage and Bannon didn’t want you to know. Instead they used scare tactics and abused national pride to gain power.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

Financial services in Singapore aren't hamstrung by supranational regulations.

 

[scaramanga]

Whereas nation-states do not? Where in the world is your utopia?

We can vote out the government of we don't like their regulations.

Within the EU, if a Labour government accepts a regulation, the next Conservative government cant reverse it. That's inherently wrong and entirely undemocratic.

 

[SpurMeUp]

We can vote out the government of we don't like their regulations.

Within the EU, if a Labour government accepts a regulation, the next Conservative government cant reverse it. That's inherently wrong and entirely undemocratic.

Clutching at straws a bit there. We were talking about how the EU provides free trade. The criticisms of that free trade didn’t stack up under scrutiny, so move the argument onto sovereignty?

The UK had Labour and Conservative MEPs in the EU parliament who can change EU laws, so again not a greatly different setup to a nation state.

Furthermore EU laws tend be on things like trade, and because the important stuff has to be ratified by 27 sovereign democratic nations only things with genuine universal benefits tend to get through and be passed as laws. Things like free mobile phone roaming, improved food standards, clean beaches, air pollution etc. Few people can name an EU law they would change.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

 

[glorygloryeze]

Are you sure salad could come from anywhere? Would you want to fly it in from the US (it couldn't come by boat obviously)? That would make your bag of salad cost 3 times as much and leave a larger carbon footprint. At the moment your bag of salad comes by truck from say Holland. In the future, it will probably be on an electric truck. At the moment, the truck doesn't stop at the border. If it needs to in the future, your salad will be less fresh and be more expensive. Nevermind that it is already more expensive because the pound has dropped because financial markets understand these simple realities and can see the potential harm to the UK economy. But they are all wrong too?

There are similar problems selling UK lamb to the EU. Or fish for that matter. Without free trade, there could be tariffs on lamb and fish that could cripple our native British lamb farming and some fishing industries. 10% on Lamb and its game over for a lot of farmers producing lamb in the UK.

These are the realities they don't tell you. You can try and argue them out. Maybe there is some potential to sell lamb elsewhere, but the arguments don't really stack up. You are better off saying look mate money aint everything. Lets focus on what is possible. Now this is the big problem for me - no one has a plan for what is possible post brexit. In short, we don't get anything positive back for all the potential losses. That is the biggest problem. I'd love you to correct me and tell me what positives we get back from leaving, but I've more chance of hearing big ben bong.

All of this is where realpolitik meets economics and everyday practical reality. Firstly salad could be bought from whomever can sell it to us at the appropriate price point at any given time. That might be an EU country, it might be further afield.
If it's an EU country after Brexit will they decide they do not want us to buy said salad (or any farming goods for that matter) anymore at that point? Will they instead sell the salad they grow to another country to cover any loss of trade with us? Will they instead throw their produce in the bin or let it rot in the field rather than sell to us? Similarly, would they decide that what farming produce they buy from us now will not taste as nice post-Brexit?

If the EU is only about Free Trade then all the above issues become more smoother to sort out because they will still want to make money selling to us (and not have to waste their farming produce or throw it away or lay off their farmers) and likewise we will still want to sell ours.

Of course, if the EU is much more about "protecting the integrity of the Union" and "Ever closer Federalism" then it will be a case of politics being more important than making money and keeping their producers in jobs and in profit.

Leaving the EU should not mean the end of Free Trade if the EU is actually simply about Free Trade (chortle!).
After all, if it can have Free Trade with Canada and other parts of the world it can with a neighbour (who is now also a potential competitor). Having Free Trade with the EU does not HAVE to mean being PART of the EU.

 

[glorygloryeze]

IMF: British economy ‘to grow faster than eurozone’

Jan 21, 2020
Washington-based institution has revised its growth forecasts

Two studies have forecast that Britain’s economy will grow faster than major Eurozone rivals this year.

The International Monetary Fund predicts that, assuming there is an orderly Brexit and a steady transition to a new relationship with the bloc, growth would accelerate from 1.3% last year to 1.4% this year and 1.5% in 2021.
It believes that the eurozone will grow by 1.3% this year and 1.4% next. Germany, France, Italy and Japan will struggle to keep up and the only two G7 advanced economies to outpace Britain would be the United States and Canada.

The Times says that PWC’s global CEO survey found that European chief executives regard Britain as a key market for growth and investment.

The accounting firm found that Britain was rated as the fourth most important territory for growth, after the United States, China and Germany, as the country’s “attractiveness” returns to levels last recorded in 2015.

Bob Moritz, PWC chairman, told the American broadcaster CNBC: “When you look at the UK specifically... you have got a little bit more certainty.”

However, CNBC adds that the IMF has become less optimistic about global growth. After forecasting in October a global growth rate of 3% for 2019 and of 3.4% for 2020, the Washington-based institution has now revised down those forecasts to 2.9% and 3.3%, respectively.

“The projected recovery for global growth remains uncertain. It continues to rely on recoveries in stressed and underperforming emerging market economies, as growth in advanced economies stabilises at close to current levels,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, said.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/105298/imf-british-economy-to-grow-faster-than-eurozone

 

[SpurMeUp]

All of this is where realpolitik meets economics and everyday practical reality. Firstly salad could be bought from whomever can sell it to us at the appropriate price point at any given time. That might be an EU country, it might be further afield.
If it's an EU country after Brexit will they decide they do not want us to buy said salad (or any farming goods for that matter) anymore at that point? Will they instead sell the salad they grow to another country to cover any loss of trade with us? Will they instead throw their produce in the bin or let it rot in the field rather than sell to us? Similarly, would they decide that what farming produce they buy from us now will not taste as nice post-Brexit?

If the EU is only about Free Trade then all the above issues become more smoother to sort out because they will still want to make money selling to us (and not have to waste their farming produce or throw it away or lay off their farmers) and likewise we will still want to sell ours.

Of course, if the EU is much more about "protecting the integrity of the Union" and "Ever closer Federalism" then it will be a case of politics being more important than making money and keeping their producers in jobs and in profit.

Leaving the EU should not mean the end of Free Trade if the EU is actually simply about Free Trade (chortle!).
After all, if it can have Free Trade with Canada and other parts of the world it can with a neighbour (who is now also a potential competitor). Having Free Trade with the EU does not HAVE to mean being PART of the EU.

Sure we will still buy salad from the EU, it will just be harder to import with border checks, more expensive due to a lower pound (have that now) and the UK might put on tariff on imports if we want to either protect our salad growing industry or retaliate for some of the EU tariffs on say our lamb. In short, barriers to trade are not good. Leaving the EU and the customs union where trade flows without tariffs or barriers at borders is a backward step whichever way you cut. If we want to keep that freedom we have to follow EU regulations - we'd have to produce food to the EU standards to have free access to sell into their market. Until tomorrow, we help set those standards. In the future we will still conform to those standards but we'll have no say.

For example, the UK is not going to have a separate car standard to the EU. No car makers would make cars just for the small UK market. We'd have cars with US or EU standards. Same applies to making cars in the UK - we have to make them to EU standards for export. Just in the future, we won't get a say in those standards.

What you and others don't seem to acknowledge is that most of our exports go to the EU - 45%.
8% of the EUs exports go to the UK

Can you see who has a stronger negotiating hand, and which party needs which more?

Canada has a free trade agreement sure. But it does not cover services - what the UK does most, what is it 80% of our economy? THe Canada fta only covers certain areas and would not be suited to the UK. Yes we can get a trade deal, but it will be a backward step for free trade and cost the UK. We can then make new trade deals with other nations, but most of our trade is with the EU, which is the same all over the world - people trade most with nations closest to them.

So...no massive changes, you'll still get salad, the UK will still trade. Just in a less efficient, less free way. This will make the UK less attractive to the likes of Sony (already moved to Amsterdam), Japanese car firms etc etc. So no massive fast change that we'll notice too much, but a slow degrading of the UK economy. Something that has started already with investment into the UK falling.

If you could point to benefits of brexit that make this slight degrading of the UK economy worthwhile I'd be eager to listen. But why are we doing this? What do we get back?

 

[scaramanga]

Clutching at straws a bit there. We were talking about how the EU provides free trade. The criticisms of that free trade didn’t stack up under scrutiny, so move the argument onto sovereignty?

The UK had Labour and Conservative MEPs in the EU parliament who can change EU laws, so again not a greatly different setup to a nation state.

Furthermore EU laws tend be on things like trade, and because the important stuff has to be ratified by 27 sovereign democratic nations only things with genuine universal benefits tend to get through and be passed as laws. Things like free mobile phone roaming, improved food standards, clean beaches, air pollution etc. Few people can name an EU law they would change.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app

I get that. My point is that I don't want a level playing field. That's bad for consumers and it's bad for the better suppliers.

I want us to be able to compete against EU businesses - the only way we can do that is from outside the EU.

 

[SpurMeUp]

I get that. My point is that I don't want a level playing field. That's bad for consumers and it's bad for the better suppliers.

I want us to be able to compete against EU businesses - the only way we can do that is from outside the EU.

With respect that is not really true is it? At the moment, you can sell anything you wish to into EU markets. You can have a truck full of your goods sent to Holland tomorrow if you wish. If someone there wants it, no forms, no tariffs, send it get the money. If you are cheaper than their local firm they will buy from you. Simple free market.

Outside the EU, 1. your product has to conform to EU safety standards. 2. your product has to be checked somehow in case they don't conform to safety standards 3. a physical border means longer dispatch times and costs 4. there may be tariffs on your goods as the EU protect their own industries.

So no, competing against EU businesses will not be easier outside the EU. One of the biggest issues is you won't be able to influence Brussels over quality standards as you can now.

 

[scaramanga]

With respect that is not really true is it? At the moment, you can sell anything you wish to into EU markets. You can have a truck full of your goods sent to Holland tomorrow if you wish. If someone there wants it, no forms, no tariffs, send it get the money. If you are cheaper than their local firm they will buy from you. Simple free market.

Outside the EU, 1. your product has to conform to EU safety standards. 2. your product has to be checked somehow in case they don't conform to safety standards 3. a physical border means longer dispatch times and costs 4. there may be tariffs on your goods as the EU protect their own industries.

So no, competing against EU businesses will not be easier outside the EU. One of the biggest issues is you won't be able to influence Brussels over quality standards as you can now.

So how do we reduce regulation/tax/etc to compete against the EU for business from the US? Or Australia, or any of the rest of the vast majority of the planet that isn't the EU?

You described it perfectly yourself - "The EU protect their own industries"

Protectionism is bad for everyone but those who want a free ride.

 

[SpurMeUp]

So how do we reduce regulation/tax/etc to compete against the EU for business from the US? Or Australia, or any of the rest of the vast majority of the planet that isn't the EU?

You described it perfectly yourself - "The EU protect their own industries"

Protectionism is bad for everyone but those who want a free ride.

You said you want to compete against EU businesses - and that makes sense as we can sell to the eu easily. No need for 2 months shipping lead time to the US etc. Having broadly similar tax and regulations regimes to EU nations facilitates trade. It means you compete with other companies in the EU on a broadly fair footing.

All nations protect their own. Heard of America First? Probably the best way to leverage or compete with the US, China etc who are much larger than the UK is to gang up with the smaller european nations who share a lot of our ethics, ideals and standards. When France, Portugal, Spain, the UK lost their colonies - their reach over the globe - the EU provided a way for them to maintain global influence.