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American politics

Apparently his negative rating in the republican part is higher than his positive so once the voting goes 1 v 1 he will lose...

Cheers.

I think we need some hard line idiots in charge. Maybe it will stop other pussy footing around. Europe is a mess and Americans can see whats coming.

Every president is the same and the world is getting worse. If we keep doing what we are doing the same results will keep happening.

First of all the world is not getting worse and Europe is not a mess.

You're talking about immigration and American that can see what's coming? I think you need to read up on immigration and the US...
Actually makes me laugh a bit how so many Europeans have been all superior about how the US have failed to handle their immigration problems in a sensitive manner. Been a real elitism about it. Turns out we as Europeans are really no better.
 
I think we need some hard line idiots in charge. Maybe it will stop other pussy footing around. Europe is a mess and Americans can see whats coming.

Every president is the same and the world is getting worse. If we keep doing what we are doing the same results will keep happening.

If it is true that Europe is a mess and the world is getting worse (big IF) then maybe... just maybe... it's because we've already spent a century voting idiots in charge?

And maybe... just maybe... the solution is not "more idiots". Just a thought.
 
As confident as I can be on the basis that I'm relying on the expert opinion of others.

An article I was recently reading was all about how flameproof Trump is. He has a base that will pretty much vote for him no matter what he says or does - that means that anyone attacking him can only lose votes, not gain them. For that reason, nobody is attacking him properly from within the Republican party. That will change when it's down to two candidates.

By this point, pretty much anyone who is going to vote for someone like Trump is already going to - there's very little Trump can do to win new voters amongst Republicans. So as other candidates drop out, their votes should (obviously just theory) go anywhere but to Trump. The only thing that will stop that is stubborn candidates refusing to drop out early, but there's at least one that drops due to having no hope and another will probably take a deal from the other "not Trump" candidate.

Of course, that all goes out the window if there's another attack from Muslamic Infidels. In that case, I'd expect him to walk a win - possibly into the White House.

This is the key point, and the one which carries the most concern as we simply do not know how many previously non-voting macarons he has managed to mobilize. There are a lot of non-voters in the US, there are also a lot of macarons. The danger will be if he hits, say, 10% in terms of galvanizing the 'magic' combo of both sets in the same bus. That would represent a threat.
 
Pretty sure that furry alien slug creature on his head is controlling him.

In all seriousness though, there is a real fear among moderate Republicans that he will be nominated as their candidate - based on what I've been reading. They know he hasn't a hope in hell of being elected nationally (unless photos of Hilary Clinton murdering toddlers get published in October), but the primaries are far less predictable and a lot of pundits are thinking that the kind of Republicans who will turn out to vote in the primaries this year will be precisely those with the biggest axe to grind against the establishment, and therefore the most likely to vote for a lunatic outsider like Trump. It's really not beyond the realm of possibility that he'll get the nomination.
Ha.
 
Cheers.



First of all the world is not getting worse and Europe is not a mess.

You're talking about immigration and American that can see what's coming? I think you need to read up on immigration and the US...
Actually makes me laugh a bit how so many Europeans have been all superior about how the US have failed to handle their immigration problems in a sensitive manner. Been a real elitism about it. Turns out we as Europeans are really no better.

Well said.

Re the 1v1 though, I'm not so sure its that clear cut, although I suspect the radical Christian vote will get Cruz through- and he is alot scarier than Trump.
 
This is a fact. The extreme right wing of the Republican Party believe in manifest destiny, they believe that GHod has granted the USA a special role to dominate the world. No really this is true. It explains the irrational positions taken by this bunch of deluded happy clappers.
 
The good thing about Trump is that he's not Ted Cruz.

Originally, I thought Hillary would walk the Dem nomination, but old Bernie has got a lot of momentum behind him. I'd love to see him (Bernie) win, with Elizabeth Warren as his VP running mate.

Sanders looks quite comfortably the best option in a very weak field (on both sides).

Well said.

Re the 1v1 though, I'm not so sure its that clear cut, although I suspect the radical Christian vote will get Cruz through- and he is alot scarier than Trump.

Both seems scary. Benefit and disadvantage to Cruz is that he's more of a party man. Everyone in the republican race now is shifting to the right and crazy brick is being said. If Cruz wins he will probably listen to his party and get a bit more moderated by them. Trump is way closer to an independent, and I do wonder if he could actually be honest in some of the brick he's saying. I don't think he'll be controlled as easily by more moderate forces in the party if in charge.

Really between a rock and a hard place to choose between the two though.

This is a fact. The extreme right wing of the Republican Party believe in manifest destiny, they believe that GHod has granted the USA a special role to dominate the world. No really this is true. It explains the irrational positions taken by this bunch of deluded happy clappers.

True. I think a lot of rational republicans are hating the state of their party at the moment. "Hijacked by the Tea Party" and pulled ever more to the religious right.

Has made some it a lot more difficult for them to actually win a presidential election though. fudge me, an old white man lost to Obama... Perhaps I'm presuming more racism than is actually there, but I don't think Obama would have won against a rational candidate from a more moderate republican party.
 
Of the two, Trump.
It would actually be fitting, the US has always seen itself as a company and he would try and run it like one.
It would be totally new politics - and either the new way or a total disaster.
But politics is stagnant everywhere else in the West, so who knows, maybe it's the solution.
fudge that's scary
 
Of the two, Trump.
It would actually be fitting, the US has always seen itself as a company and he would try and run it like one.
It would be totally new politics - and either the new way or a total disaster.
But politics is stagnant everywhere else in the West, so who knows, maybe it's the solution.
fudge that's scary

Dan Carlin on his common sense podcast often has interesting takes on what's going on (imo at least).

He's been rather positive about Trump because he can expose the cracks and show people what's actually going on because he's an outsider. Carlin in huge on the issue of money in (US) politics in particular. But even Carlin seems scared of what Trump can actually do if he gets into power. He's just so much of an unknown quantity. His financial record is massively overstated and whatever skills he has aren't necessarily transferable to a political leader situation.
 
Cheers. Interesting way of looking at it at least (I'm not really up on political analysis like this).

Do you think that's a bit of a consensus opinion of several experts in the field? Or more one person's opinion? Has this happened before? Or is Trump a special enough case that they are making assumptions and thus being a bit more speculative?

My gut feeling is that saying that there's very little Trump can do to win new voters from the Republicans seems a bit like guesswork. I know he's an outsider, but as we've seen in the past with the tea-party movement fairly extreme views can gain a lot of traction in that political climate. Although probably quite a few Republicans can't stand Trump some of the other candidates that will be left after some drop out aren't exactly top class candidates either.

Is Donald Trump the Leicester of American Politics? What would be the biggest shock? Leicester winning the league or Trump becoming president?
The less alarmist experts I've read are all pointing to the fact that, historically, a huge poll lead for the primaries at this point means very little. There have been quite a few Republican candidates with large poll leads at this stage who most of us would probably struggle to remember.

Many are also pointing out that those polling for Trump are not traditional voters and that it's hard to estimate how many will turn up this time.

On the downside (for those of us who are not Trump fans), there's a lot of in-fighting between the other Republican candidates and it currently looks unlikely that they'll all gather behind one candidate. I can't see that lasting though, I imagine most would want a good position behind another candidate rather than scrap to the end. They'll only do this if they think their candidate can win the presidential elections though and I don't think that most Republicans think Trump or Cruz can do that.

In Trump's favour when it comes to a presidential election, is that people are currently scared and scared people do change the way they vote drastically (insert neat side-stepping of Godwin here). There's also the fact that, for all his great social policies, Sanders has some pretty far out economic ideas - some of which would be considered fairly left wing on this side of the pond. Clinton is just a fudgewit and I suspect that if she wins the nomination there will be a huge pile of confidential email leaked from her private account that has been held back for later use. They'll also bring up her "struggles with the truth", which are numerous even for a politician.

Looking at who is available, it's not a great time to be an American. In terms of knock-on effects for the UK, I'm hoping for either a moderate Republican or a puppet Clinton kept well away from anything she can do damage to or with - that's about the best we can hope for.
 
The less alarmist experts I've read are all pointing to the fact that, historically, a huge poll lead for the primaries at this point means very little. There have been quite a few Republican candidates with large poll leads at this stage who most of us would probably struggle to remember.

Many are also pointing out that those polling for Trump are not traditional voters and that it's hard to estimate how many will turn up this time.

On the downside (for those of us who are not Trump fans), there's a lot of in-fighting between the other Republican candidates and it currently looks unlikely that they'll all gather behind one candidate. I can't see that lasting though, I imagine most would want a good position behind another candidate rather than scrap to the end. They'll only do this if they think their candidate can win the presidential elections though and I don't think that most Republicans think Trump or Cruz can do that.

In Trump's favour when it comes to a presidential election, is that people are currently scared and scared people do change the way they vote drastically (insert neat side-stepping of Godwin here). There's also the fact that, for all his great social policies, Sanders has some pretty far out economic ideas - some of which would be considered fairly left wing on this side of the pond. Clinton is just a fudgewit and I suspect that if she wins the nomination there will be a huge pile of confidential email leaked from her private account that has been held back for later use. They'll also bring up her "struggles with the truth", which are numerous even for a politician.

Looking at who is available, it's not a great time to be an American. In terms of knock-on effects for the UK, I'm hoping for either a moderate Republican or a puppet Clinton kept well away from anything she can do damage to or with - that's about the best we can hope for.

Cheers.

Yeah the apparent problems with both of the likely Democratic candidates can throw everything wide open even with someone like Trump or Cruz running for the Republicans.

Not a Clinton fan at all, and like you I think she might struggle and there will be a dumpster fire. Sanders accepting to use the "S-word" about himself is going to make the third of the US population that can't even spell communism never mind define it just fear-vote for whoever has a R next to their name.

Edit: Bookmakers have Trump as a significant favourite to win the nomination: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

If you had to guess, what would you say the odds are (btw, did you listen to the super predictors episode of Freakonomics?)
 
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Cheers.

Yeah the apparent problems with both of the likely Democratic candidates can throw everything wide open even with someone like Trump or Cruz running for the Republicans.

Not a Clinton fan at all, and like you I think she might struggle and there will be a dumpster fire. Sanders accepting to use the "S-word" about himself is going to make the third of the US population that can't even spell communism never mind define it just fear-vote for whoever has a R next to their name.
It's a strange world when minimum wage voters are against the idea of a minimum wage, but that's 'Murica for you.

Edit: Bookmakers have Trump as a significant favourite to win the nomination: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

If you had to guess, what would you say the odds are (btw, did you listen to the super predictors episode of Freakonomics?)
I'd like to see their starting odds - everything since is based on where others are putting their money. I'd say that currently Trump or not (the only thing I've really been paying attention to) is 50:50. If the rest of the party can get themselves sorted out then I'd expect Trump's chances to drop to about 30%.

I'm about 3 months behind on both Freakonomics and The Skeptic's Guide - partly because I've been travelling less over the winter and partly because The Infinite Monkey has been on and Stephen Hawking's been doing the Reith Lectures. Is it a repeat of the one they did before?
 
It's a strange world when minimum wage voters are against the idea of a minimum wage, but that's 'Murica for you.


I'd like to see their starting odds - everything since is based on where others are putting their money. I'd say that currently Trump or not (the only thing I've really been paying attention to) is 50:50. If the rest of the party can get themselves sorted out then I'd expect Trump's chances to drop to about 30%.

I'm about 3 months behind on both Freakonomics and The Skeptic's Guide - partly because I've been travelling less over the winter and partly because The Infinite Monkey has been on and Stephen Hawking's been doing the Reith Lectures. Is it a repeat of the one they did before?

50:50 is about what the odds are at at the moment so not a huge difference...

Was a very good episode on forecasting/predictions. Teams forecasting big international events and apparently crushing it compared to the people that get listened to in large US government organization.

Both the Infinite Monkey and Reith Lectures have passed me by somehow. Will have to check those out.
 
50:50 is about what the odds are at at the moment so not a huge difference...

Was a very good episode on forecasting/predictions. Teams forecasting big international events and apparently crushing it compared to the people that get listened to in large US government organization.

Both the Infinite Monkey and Reith Lectures have passed me by somehow. Will have to check those out.
Typo - Infinite Monkey Cage
 
Obviously he'd have to beat Hilary first, but Sanders does poll well against Trump. I think a moderate Republican would probably beat Sanders in an election, but I think he would beat the ones with more extreme views.

If the Republicans manage to nominate a more moderate, establishment candidate, then they will win the Presidency imo. But I don't think they will do that.
 
The less alarmist experts I've read are all pointing to the fact that, historically, a huge poll lead for the primaries at this point means very little. There have been quite a few Republican candidates with large poll leads at this stage who most of us would probably struggle to remember.

Many are also pointing out that those polling for Trump are not traditional voters and that it's hard to estimate how many will turn up this time.

On the downside (for those of us who are not Trump fans), there's a lot of in-fighting between the other Republican candidates and it currently looks unlikely that they'll all gather behind one candidate. I can't see that lasting though, I imagine most would want a good position behind another candidate rather than scrap to the end. They'll only do this if they think their candidate can win the presidential elections though and I don't think that most Republicans think Trump or Cruz can do that.

In Trump's favour when it comes to a presidential election, is that people are currently scared and scared people do change the way they vote drastically (insert neat side-stepping of Godwin here). There's also the fact that, for all his great social policies, Sanders has some pretty far out economic ideas - some of which would be considered fairly left wing on this side of the pond. Clinton is just a fudgewit and I suspect that if she wins the nomination there will be a huge pile of confidential email leaked from her private account that has been held back for later use. They'll also bring up her "struggles with the truth", which are numerous even for a politician.

Looking at who is available, it's not a great time to be an American. In terms of knock-on effects for the UK, I'm hoping for either a moderate Republican or a puppet Clinton kept well away from anything she can do damage to or with - that's about the best we can hope for.

Interesting...is there any reason you mention the bolded bit? (Perhaps i've missed something in the news about a bubling scandal in the last year or so..)
 
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