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Ben Davies

Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

I think this will also make Rose up his game

If so , two young decent LBs for 5m each....happy days

As long as by 'up', you mean East Yorkshire.

Fryers was a relatively small fee though, so your point is still valid ;-)
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

Accepting that quoting myself makes me look like a dingdonghead I wrote this in the transfer thread when the dribbled past stat was brought up:

I don't know about averages, but looking at whoscored.com, sorting by dribbled past and scrolling down looking for full backs some of the results are:

-Flanagan - 1.7
-Ben Davies - 1.6
-Erik Pieters - 1.3
-Angel Rangel - 1.2
-Pablo Zabaleta - 1.1
-Kyle Walker - 1
-César Azpilicueta - 1
-Davide Santon 0.9
-Patrice Evra - 0.9
-Kyle Naughton - 0.9
-Gaël Clichy - 0.9
-Rafael - 0.8
-Danny Rose - 0.8
-Dean Moxey - 0.8
-Kieran Gibbs - 0.7
-John Arne Riise 0.7
-Luke Shaw - 0.6
-Leighton Baines - 0.6
-Seamus Coleman - 0.5
-Phil Bardsley - 0.5
-Billy Jones - 0.4
-George McCartney - 0.4
-Guy Demel - 0.2

That's per appearance, so I only included players with a lot more starts than sub appearances to avoid getting skewed numbers. Didn't include all full backs, but didn't purposefully leave anyone out. I avoided players that regularly play other positions too.

It's noteworthy that Ben Davies is so close to the top of that list, but at the same time it's worth noting that he's only 0.5 above a player like Zabaleta and 0.6 above Walker and Azpilicueta - 3 full backs that I think most here rate very highly defensively.

Obviously for any one player having a lower number would be better, if all other things are equal. But I don't think you can say that having a lower number makes you a better player. Unsurprising perhaps that Fat Sam managed full backs like Demel and McCartney are at the bottom of that list considering how well drilled they are defensively, how far back they usually sit and how much protection Allardyce asks his wide midfielders to give his full backs. The other regular Swansea full back Angel Rangel is also relatively high up that list at 1.2. I will repeat until the cows come home that this is about context and not looking at stats in isolation.

Going with the assumption that the context of the team surrounding the player is important I checked out Davies' stats from last season, where he scored 0.9 (per game, 33 starts, 4 sub appearances). No doubt that was a season when Swansea functioned better as a team, not a season where they struggled and sacked their manager. Now, it might be that Ben Davies was exposed more in his second season or it might be that he was found out to some extent by opposing wingers or there might be some other explanation for this, I honestly wouldn't know. But I think this illustrates the problem of just looking at a stat like this in isolation comparing two different players at different teams and trying to draw conclusions about ability.

Looking at our two full backs they're very close in numbers, but I rate Walker a lot higher (one on one?) defensively than Rose, yet Rose has a lower number. I think this can be at least partly explained by the playing style of each of them. Walker rather often gets very close to his winger, almost dares him to take him on and very often comes out ahead (imo). Comparably Rose stands off his man more, will fall back and perhaps not get dribbled, but also won't win the ball. So in addition to style of play of each team influencing these stats I think style of play of the individual full back makes a big difference. At least for some a style of play that means getting dribbled past a bit more frequently might be the better option overall. Who does Ben Davies play more like, I'm not sure myself?

I don't think stats like these in isolation is anywhere near a good indication of the actual quality of the player. I have to say that whenever I've seen Ben Davies he's seemed solid enough and hasn't seemed like the kind of liability a 1.6 number here might at first seem to indicate. But I did also watch him more last season and less this season when most reports have indicated that he hasn't been as good.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

Accepting that quoting myself makes me look like a dingdonghead I wrote this in the transfer thread when the dribbled past stat was brought up:

I don't know about averages, but looking at whoscored.com, sorting by dribbled past and scrolling down looking for full backs some of the results are:

-Flanagan - 1.7
-Ben Davies - 1.6
-Erik Pieters - 1.3
-Angel Rangel - 1.2
-Pablo Zabaleta - 1.1
-Kyle Walker - 1
-César Azpilicueta - 1
-Davide Santon 0.9
-Patrice Evra - 0.9
-Kyle Naughton - 0.9
-Gaël Clichy - 0.9
-Rafael - 0.8
-Danny Rose - 0.8
-Dean Moxey - 0.8
-Kieran Gibbs - 0.7
-John Arne Riise 0.7
-Luke Shaw - 0.6
-Leighton Baines - 0.6
-Seamus Coleman - 0.5
-Phil Bardsley - 0.5
-Billy Jones - 0.4
-George McCartney - 0.4
-Guy Demel - 0.2

That's per appearance, so I only included players with a lot more starts than sub appearances to avoid getting skewed numbers. Didn't include all full backs, but didn't purposefully leave anyone out. I avoided players that regularly play other positions too.

It's noteworthy that Ben Davies is so close to the top of that list, but at the same time it's worth noting that he's only 0.5 above a player like Zabaleta and 0.6 above Walker and Azpilicueta - 3 full backs that I think most here rate very highly defensively.

Obviously for any one player having a lower number would be better, if all other things are equal. But I don't think you can say that having a lower number makes you a better player. Unsurprising perhaps that Fat Sam managed full backs like Demel and McCartney are at the bottom of that list considering how well drilled they are defensively, how far back they usually sit and how much protection Allardyce asks his wide midfielders to give his full backs. The other regular Swansea full back Angel Rangel is also relatively high up that list at 1.2. I will repeat until the cows come home that this is about context and not looking at stats in isolation.

Going with the assumption that the context of the team surrounding the player is important I checked out Davies' stats from last season, where he scored 0.9 (per game, 33 starts, 4 sub appearances). No doubt that was a season when Swansea functioned better as a team, not a season where they struggled and sacked their manager. Now, it might be that Ben Davies was exposed more in his second season or it might be that he was found out to some extent by opposing wingers or there might be some other explanation for this, I honestly wouldn't know. But I think this illustrates the problem of just looking at a stat like this in isolation comparing two different players at different teams and trying to draw conclusions about ability.

Looking at our two full backs they're very close in numbers, but I rate Walker a lot higher (one on one?) defensively than Rose, yet Rose has a lower number. I think this can be at least partly explained by the playing style of each of them. Walker rather often gets very close to his winger, almost dares him to take him on and very often comes out ahead (imo). Comparably Rose stands off his man more, will fall back and perhaps not get dribbled, but also won't win the ball. So in addition to style of play of each team influencing these stats I think style of play of the individual full back makes a big difference. At least for some a style of play that means getting dribbled past a bit more frequently might be the better option overall. Who does Ben Davies play more like, I'm not sure myself?

I don't think stats like these in isolation is anywhere near a good indication of the actual quality of the player. I have to say that whenever I've seen Ben Davies he's seemed solid enough and hasn't seemed like the kind of liability a 1.6 number here might at first seem to indicate. But I did also watch him more last season and less this season when most reports have indicated that he hasn't been as good.

Putting some context into those stats...

The bottom 4 as full backs don't go past their own half way line
The Everton two are great players but rarely get taken on as people tended to go through the middle against them when I saw them
The hour left with more realistic figures for what their worth

It would be more interesting to see goals that have came from this take ons and the actual position on average. One thing being taken in the half way line but you can let a player do that to force them wide. It's what comes from it that's import at surely?
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

Surely the most important stat for defenders is unforced errors? Anyone got these for last season?
And don't you have to be in position to be dribbled past?
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

Forget stats, just watch him with your own eyes. He'll be incredible for us. Having him, Walker and Vertonghen as 3/4's of a settled back four will be fantastic for us, too. Also, because of his ability on the ball, expect to see Vertonghen bringing the ball out more, with Davies filling in at the back.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

Forget stats, just watch him with your own eyes. He'll be incredible for us. Having him, Walker and Vertonghen as 3/4's of a settled back four will be fantastic for us, too. Also, because of his ability on the ball, expect to see Vertonghen bringing the ball out more, with Davies filling in at the back.

yeah i agree - you can't dispute the stats, but it doesn't describe potential. His build, athleticism, natural awareness and something of a footballing brain - loads of potential. And i trust poch in getting the most out of him.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

As long as by 'up', you mean East Yorkshire.

Fryers was a relatively small fee though, so your point is still valid ;-)

I doubt it:

Pochettino said: 'The season is very long and we need to stay deep at every position.

‘Ben Davies is important for us because he’s good competition for Danny Rose on the left side. He’s a young player, but he has good experience in the Premier League.’
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

yeah i agree - you can't dispute the stats, but it doesn't describe potential. His build, athleticism, natural awareness and something of a footballing brain - loads of potential. And i trust poch in getting the most out of him.
You can dispute the interpretation, choice or emphasis put on stats though
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

You can dispute the interpretation, choice or emphasis put on stats though

You can also dispute the collection of the stats, e.g. saying someone is dribbled past when you deliberately let them come inside to run into traffic/ your centre back, or deliberately let them go outside knowing they were running out of room and can't cross for toffee or being dribbled by Ron Vlaar or Ronaldo or whatever these stats may not show. E.g. a completed pass could be counted when you fire it 3 yards at someone's throat who is being closed down by 3 players, or it could be pass of the year.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

You can also dispute the collection of the stats, e.g. saying someone is dribbled past when you deliberately let them come inside to run into traffic/ your centre back, or deliberately let them go outside knowing they were running out of room and can't cross for toffee or being dribbled by Ron Vlaar or Ronaldo or whatever these stats may not show. E.g. a completed pass could be counted when you fire it 3 yards at someone's throat who is being closed down by 3 players, or it could be pass of the year.
Absolutely. Stats are really useful but unfortunately many people just cherry pick data to support their argument, ignore anything that contradicts it and present this as proof that they are right.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

Stats are misleading as a rule of thumb and utterly pointless from my POV. Lets just wait and see what the kid offers.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

Stats are misleading as a rule of thumb and utterly pointless from my POV. Lets just wait and see what the kid offers.

The less you understand about them the less useful they are. Take a bit of time to delve into them and you'd be surprised what you'll learn.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

yeah i agree - you can't dispute the stats, but it doesn't describe potential. His build, athleticism, natural awareness and something of a footballing brain - loads of potential. And i trust poch in getting the most out of him.

Stats also say he made more blocks, tackles and interceptions than any of our players last year, so in that respect he's an upgrade defensively.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

The less you understand about them the less useful they are. Take a bit of time to delve into them and you'd be surprised what you'll learn.

Not quite sure if your talking to me or people in general but I understand them fully and in detail. I choose to ignore them out of choice.

If anyone wants to read into them that's their choice.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

Most obvious weakness in our starting 11 addressed.

Really pleased with this one. As big an upgrade as we could have got for that money.
 
Not quite sure if your talking to me or people in general but I understand them fully and in detail. I choose to ignore them out of choice.

If anyone wants to read into them that's their choice.
That's quite the turnaround. To have studied A Level Maths and at the very least an undergrad course in Stats or Applied Maths and then turn around and decide to ignore them is unusual to say the least.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

That's quite the turnaround. To have studied A Level Maths and at the very least an undergrad course in Stats or Applied Maths and then turn around and decide to ignore them is unusual to say the least.

There is no good mathematical or statistical model for Football.

There are a few worthwhile individual stats that indicate certain things but most are flawed.

That http://eplindex.com/50471/fullback-comparison-ben-davies-shaw-rose-gibbs.html link has Danny Rose at 2 defensive errors for last season.
I watched him make at least 2 every game he played in last season.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

There is no good mathematical or statistical model for Football.

What makes you feel qualified to make such a sweeping statement? There a a lot of people who I'm sure are a lot more qualified than you who would disagree.

There are a few worthwhile individual stats that indicate certain things but most are flawed.

That's the case with stats in everything, not just football. The value is in the application of those stats. It's the first mistake that the layman makes when reading published figures.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

Stats also say he made more blocks, tackles and interceptions than any of our players last year, so in that respect he's an upgrade defensively.

Another misinterpreted stat.
I bet most relegated team's players also did "better defensively" than any of our players.
Why? Because they had more defending to do.

The stat maybe worth looking at in this is the %successful of blocks, tackles and interceptions not totals.
 
Re: ***Official*** Ben Davies signs for THFC

Another misinterpreted stat.
I bet most relegated team's players also did "better defensively" than any of our players.
Why? Because they had more defending to do.

The stat maybe worth looking at in this is the %successful of blocks, tackles and interceptions not totals.

i said it in defence of those that said stats are pointless.
 
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