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Politics, politics, politics

milo said:
It's non-tariff barriers that are what we need to watch out for and are more difficult to overcome.
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We already have to record and report the details of everything we import and export as a business. Those telling you that it's massively different outside the EU are scaremongering.

One of our suppliers (a US company) had a presence in France in order to be in the EU. About 5 years ago they ditched their french branch and served the EU from their Dubai base because the costs of being in the EU (tax, employment costs, red tape, etc) were significantly higher than the cost and effort of being outside.

They've halved their admin staff since moving, have taken more than half from associated costs and have never looked back.
 
scaramanga said:
Do you genuinely believe that a slight price increase will stop people drinking scotch?

It's not as if they can get it from anywhere else.
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I worry they might stop drinking good scotch, it's incredible what £40/50 can get you these days, the more daring expressions and distilleries will be first to go.

Also, with the upcoming peatagedden on Islay will the investment be there to fix it.
 
scaramanga said:
We already have to record and report the details of everything we import and export as a business. Those telling you that it's massively different outside the EU are scaremongering.

One of our suppliers (a US company) had a presence in France in order to be in the EU. About 5 years ago they ditched their french branch and served the EU from their Dubai base because the costs of being in the EU (tax, employment costs, red tape, etc) were significantly higher than the cost and effort of being outside.

They've halved their admin staff since moving, have taken more than half from associated costs and have never looked back.
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I think that you are talking about something different. This is good on non-tariff barriers and how the EU helps reduce them

https://fullfact.org/europe/what-single-market/
 
And the EU FTA negotiations with India broke down because of our concerns about the tariffs that they were proposing to put on Scotch
 
galeforce said:
I worry they might stop drinking good scotch, it's incredible what £40/50 can get you these days, the more daring expressions and distilleries will be first to go.

Also, with the upcoming peatagedden on Islay will the investment be there to fix it.
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If people are willing to accept a substitute then they will anyway, a couple of percent won't make a difference.

People buy scotch because it's scotch, not because it's Whisky. EU membership won't cause or end that.
 
scaramanga said:
Nope, I'm fully aware of non-tariff barriers, it's just paperwork.

The point that was made to me is that the paperwork required to get products into the EU (and associated costs) are dwarfed by the regulations imposed by the EU.
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The example in the article I linked to wasn't paperwork, a product was barred for sale because it did not comply with local regulations.
 
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scaramanga said:
The very worst case the EU can apply is WTO tariffs. We know worst case scenario and it's not that bad. In fact, the savings from paying a fortune to the EU every year could subsidise exports to cover most of that.

That's before we take into account the savings on import because we're able to trade properly with the rest of the world.

Trade is good, protectionism bad.
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It's commonly known that WTO terms would be extremely challenging for the uk. Take car manufacturing. There would be a 10% duty on any cars we make and sell to the EU. Circa 350,000 cars are exported to EU. The margin, profit margin, on cars is less than 10%! Would the 10% tariff matter? Of course it would. All large manufacturers would shut shop and move factories into the union, maybe not instantly but when they have to retool etc. The result would be 1000s of lost jobs, not just those who make the cars but a whole supply chain of smaller companies would go too.

In short WTO rules would be a disaster.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
 
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SpurMeUp said:
You think it's like a football match with sore losers!?

When the NHS has LESS funding, not more, because of Brexit; when teachers get yet another pay freeze, and schools remain under funded because the economy has shrunk and their is less tax revenue. Because the UK doesn't manufacture or sell as many cars, whisky or financial products etc to the WORLDS LARGEST TRADING BLOCK maybe you'll get it? But I doubt it. You'll say something like, people voted now suck it up.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
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I think you need to change your crystal ball, you seem so sure of yourself that SOMETHING is wrong and everything is going to turn out the way you are convinced it will. :rolleyes:
 
Gutter Boy said:
How so?

£350m is our weekly net contribution to the EU. It was never all going to be spent on the NHS (that was just a dumb example for dumb people), but we will have that additional money to spend on things. Some may be directed to subsidising agriculture and the more deprived regions, where we do actually get some EU money back. But we are the biggest net contributor to the EU after Germany, and we will get to keep the money that currently subsidises southern europe's siestas.

Freedom of movement will stop in March 2019 and we will get a replacement work permit system where we can control numbers and prioritise people based on skills and personal relations (spouses), rather than nationality.

The jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and the dictats from the European Commission will again stop in March 2019. Parliament will be sovereign again for the first time since the EU started pursuing federalism at Maastricht in 1992.

So I do still expect those three things to happen. They are fully complementary to a free trade agreement + research and security co-operation
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Your wasting you breath mate, there are one or two who even after having it explained to them still insist on ignoring that.
 
parklane1 said:
I think you need to change your crystal ball, you seem so sure of yourself that SOMETHING is wrong and everything is going to turn out the way you are convinced it will. :rolleyes:
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Fair point. Look no one knows what will happen or even the terms of exit. It might not even happen. But when you rationally analyse it, the uk will likely lose trade, and no one can tell me how we'll increase non-EU trade. The question is, why aren't we trading with these non European places now? The implications of losing financial services to EU countries and things like car manufacturers is real. If we do lose them and don't replace them the uk will be considerably poorer. We might rebuild trade with places like India, but how many decades would that take and why would they help us when they are more interested in access to 500m EU consumers than our paltry 50m? When you analyse it from an economic perspective Brexit is a pretty shoddy deal for the uk.

Of course money isn't everything. Maybe we will be poorer and happier? We'll have more community spirit and a better national cohesion. But why can't we have that now? What is stopping us pre Brexit?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
 
SpurMeUp said:
Fair point. Look no one knows what will happen or even the terms of exit. It might not even happen. But when you rationally analyse it, the uk will likely lose trade, and no one can tell me how we'll increase non-EU trade. The question is, why aren't we trading with these non European places now? The implications of losing financial services to EU countries and things like car manufacturers is real. If we do lose them and don't replace them the uk will be considerably poorer. We might rebuild trade with places like India, but how many decades would that take and why would they help us when they are more interested in access to 500m EU consumers than our paltry 50m? When you analyse it from an economic perspective Brexit is a pretty shoddy deal for the uk.

Of course money isn't everything. Maybe we will be poorer and happier? We'll have more community spirit and a better national cohesion. But why can't we have that now? What is stopping us pre Brexit?


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
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Did you ever read that story " Peter and the Wolf" ? it seems you have convinced yourself that it is all going to end up wrong.
 
milo said:
The example in the article I linked to wasn't paperwork, a product was barred for sale because it did not comply with local regulations.
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That's the same with selling any product to anywhere.

If we currently want to sell something to the US it has to conform to US regulations. As it stands our products have to conform to EU regulations to sell there.

Nothing will change in that sense.
 
parklane1 said:
And as i said, your crystal ball is broke. We will wait and see but if i was you i would stop taking the misery pills. :D
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Right now I'm in an NHS hospital giving my father a foot massage [emoji23] nurses were supposed to knock off at 8 and another shift start. Most nurses on the ward were an hour late leaving! Now if Brexit happens and there is less money that will mean a further degraded health service. Brexit has real implications. Try to evaluate the implications logically. We could suddenly start trading with India etc but it seems like a fairytale scenario spun by a rich elite to get us to leave a mutually beneficial trading union, that has seen our nation prosper since entry in the 70s. That's my view. As you say Stop! Hammer time. [emoji4]



Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
 
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SpurMeUp said:
Right now I'm in an NHS hospital giving my father a foot massage [emoji23] nurses were supposed to knock off at 8 and another shift start. Most rises on the ward were an hour late leaving! Now if Brexit happens and there is less money that will mean a further degraded health service. Brexit has real implications. Try to evaluate the implications logically. We could suddenly start trading with India etc but it seems like a fairytale scenario spun by a rich elite to get us to leave a mutually beneficial trading union, that has seen our nation prosper since entry in the 70s. That's my view. As you say it's all about options. [emoji4]



Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
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Sorry to hear about your Dad :( but the NHS is failing and has been for years. However that is down to the Torys and their trying to flog it off to their mates so they can make even more money. However that is a debate for another day.
 
SpurMeUp said:
It's commonly known that WTO terms would be extremely challenging for the uk. Take car manufacturing. There would be a 10% duty on any cars we make and sell to the EU. Circa 90% of cars we make are sold in the EU. The margin, profit margin, on cars is less than 10%! Would the 10% tariff matter? Of course it would. All large manufacturers would shut shop and move factories into the union, maybe not instantly but when they have to retool etc. The result would be 1000s of lost jobs, not just those who make the cars but a whole supply chain of smaller companies would go too.

In short WTO rules would be a disaster.


Sitting on my porcelain throne using glory-glory.co.uk mobile app
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The UK's total exports to the EU in the last measured year were £240Bn. The weighted average WTO tariff of those goods was (according to fullfact.org) 2.3%

2.3% of £240bn is a little over £5bn.

Our net annual contribution (or what the government could subsidise EU exports by without losing a penny) is £8.6bn.

Which number is bigger?
 
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