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Coronavirus

milo said:
The first test of it will be when Italy relaxes its measures and how quickly cases rise again. My understanding is that we need to keep cases below 100k based on ICU capacity
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Might be longer than that. Italy may have eradicated it but someone from somewhere will bring it in at some point.

Could be a year away but my understanding is that it will happen.
 
scaramanga said:
Might be longer than that. Italy may have eradicated it but someone from somewhere will bring it in at some point.

Could be a year away but my understanding is that it will happen.
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If it coincides with winter flu season, they have big problems but they do have more time to prepare. The hope has to be that there is a cheap, reliable and quick test developed quickly. If people can test when they feel unwell, we can be a lot more targeted with quarantining.
 
I have some idea about the “BI Team”, as they now are. Poorly resourced, much less impressive than they were ten years ago. Meanwhile all the Whitehall chief scientific advisors, and all their minions, are working flat out and coordinating through SAGE. The scientists are definitely in control; and the behavioural ones are being brought in as and when, for specific questions.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
I have some idea about the “BI Team”, as they now are. Poorly resourced, much less impressive than they were ten years ago. Meanwhile all the Whitehall chief scientific advisors, and all their minions, are working flat out and coordinating through SAGE. The scientists are definitely in control; and the behavioural ones are being bought in as and when, for specific questions.
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That's reassuring, there were some reports to the contrary earlier in the week.
 
milo said:
That's reassuring, there were some reports to the contrary earlier in the week.
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The bloke who founded it may well be walking the halls daily, and he has much more reason to publicise his involvement than civil servants (who don’t need to think about pitching for business elsewhere), and journalists are desperate for stories. But it really is PHE and SAGE running the show.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
The bloke who founded it may well be walking the halls daily, and he has much more reason to publicise his involvement than civil servants (who don’t need to think about pitching for business elsewhere), and journalists are desperate for stories. But it really is PHE and SAGE running the show.
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I think that I am right in saying that they were mutualised a few years back and do private work too, so they have an interest in talking up their involvement
 
Think the US announcing the flight closure will be the end of a few Airlines

Norwegian are on the Verge and I can’t see Virgin surviving
 
Legohamster said:
Think the US announcing the flight closure will be the end of a few Airlines

Norwegian are on the Verge and I can’t see Virgin surviving
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Sister in law works for virgin holidays. Said people have been cancelling holidays non stop.

Think the financial cost will be far worse then the health cost. Think more people will do from the health implications of a recession then the virus.
 
milo said:
The concern has to be @scaramanga that the strategy is being run by the nudge unit rather than the scientists.
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And I think that's perfectly right.

Epidemiologists might understand the virus and its effects very well but asking them to help set public policy would be like asking behavioural scientists to help find a vaccine.
 
Danishfurniturelover said:
Sister in law works for virgin holidays. Said people have been cancelling holidays non stop.

Think the financial cost will be far worse then the health cost. Think more people will do from the health implications of a recession then the virus.
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So do I

300 million loss was announced - that was before shutting of Orlando

Where she work?
 
scaramanga said:
And I think that's perfectly right.

Epidemiologists might understand the virus and its effects very well but asking them to help set public policy would be like asking behavioural scientists to help find a vaccine.
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They don't have the skills for this either but I am assured by what @ShipOfGoldblum has said.
 
ShipOfGoldblum said:
Will be delighted to see the end of BA. Ryanair experience at premium prices.
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Without turning it brexity - but there will be a knock on

We need airlines to trade/business centre we want it to be a hub.

The Government can’t allow the airlines to go, but they won’t be able to save every company
 
SAGE relies on GO-Science as well as the CSA network and that has its fair share of cross disciplinary oddsters, eg systems thinkers, so it’s not as if HMG can’t rustle up woo and witchdoctery when it wants.
 
Legohamster said:
Without turning it brexity - but there will be a knock on

We need airlines to trade/business centre we want it to be a hub.

The Government can’t allow the airlines to go, but they won’t be able to save every company
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But BA is just Iberia with Brexit-friendly tailfins, though. I don’t see what we get out of a pretend flag carrier.
 
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