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Politics, politics, politics

Why would they wait? Remain said these numbers would go based on us leaving the EU, that was based on there being a deal. If us leaving with a deal was the best case senario and we were going to leave why would the companies wait around to find out if it was a hard Brexit or not? Thats an example of project fear by pumping out those number no?

Point being if we are to leave which is the result of the Ref'dum and companies are still not leaving and waiting, is it not a case that its not going to be as bad as some said based on the fact they are not jumping regardless? Companies obviously believe they can still operate in an independant Britain or they would have gone regardless.
My sister works in the city and her company has setup shop in the EU with a skeleton staff but hasn't moved wholesale yet. They are still playing the waiting game to see how it plays out. She says she knows of a few others doing something similar but I couldn't tell you how widespread that is.

I'm not sure how accurate this report is but it paints a more damning picture than 1k jobs moving...
https://nordic.businessinsider.com/brexit-damaged-city-of-london-2018-11/
 
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There was another separate Reuters survey which reported that most of the London-based top investment banks which were asked about their future plans indicated that they are looking to hire a greater number of people in London than any other EU capital.
 
There was another separate Reuters survey which reported that most of the London-based top investment banks which were asked about their future plans indicated that they are looking to hire a greater number of people in London than any other EU capital.

If you think that article is credible, its hard to argue against this:

Here's a roundup of the financial exodus so far:

  • US bank giants Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup have moved 250 billion euros ($283 billion) of balance-sheet assets to Frankfurt because of Brexit.
  • Bank of America is spending $400 million to move staff and operations in anticipation of Brexit, and is trying to persuade London staff to move to Paris.
  • Barclays last week won permission to shift assets worth £166 billion($216 billion) to its Irish division. Barclays is set to become Ireland's biggest bank.
  • France's BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale have opted to transfer 500 staff out of London to Paris.
  • UBS has chosen German financial center Frankfurt for its new EU headquarters.
  • Swiss peer Credit Suisse is moving 250 jobs to Germany, Madrid, and Luxembourg among other EU 27 countries as well as $200 million from its market division to Germany. And in December Credit Suisse told its wealthiest clients to hurry and move their money out of the UK before Brexit.
  • Germany's Deutsche Bank is also considering shifting large volumes of assets to Frankfurt as part of its Brexit plan.
  • HSBC, Europe's biggest bank, has shifted ownership of many of its European subsidiaries from its London-based entity to its French unit.
  • Australia's largest bank by assets, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, has set in motion plans to base around 50 staff in Amsterdam, and has applied for a banking licence in the country.
  • Other Australian lenders Macquarie, Westpac, and ANZ are also in talks to move operations to Dublin and continental Europe.
  • Europe's biggest repo trading venue, called BrokerTec, is being moved to Amsterdam from London, meaning a $240 billion a day repo business is leaving the UK.
  • More than 100 UK-based asset managers and funds have applied to the Irish central bank for authorization in Ireland.
Can you argue against it? Just have to say well yes, even though Brexit hasn't happened it is affecting jobs and tax revenue for the UK. Yet we were told 'not one job would be lost due to Brexit'. Clearly not true. The article continues:

The impact of these changes will see less tax revenue for the government, fewer jobs, and a dent in dealmaking, taking a shine off the City's luster.

And that's just financial services.

A British parliamentary report also recently announced that the UK had lost out on €5 billion ($5.7 billion) in infrastructure funding in the past year.

Schaeffler, a car parts company, is closing two UK factories because of Brexit, leading to 570 fewer jobs.


A great Twitter thread by a self-described 48%-er in Cambridge lists a wide array of industry impact. You can read it here.
 
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Conservative MP Boris Johnson rises to congratulate Theresa May for what she is doing "to extricate this country from the humiliation of the backstop".

He asks Theresa May to confirm that there is "no point in having a time limit on the backstop unless it is written into the treaty itself and if the end date is substantially before the next general election".

Theresa May says she wants to see the future relationship coming into place in the beginning of 2021.

"We are asking for legally binding status to the assurances the EU has given over the backstop," the prime minister says.


And thats it in a nutshell, isnt it?

The EU are playing brinkmanship, not wanting to formalise what they say about the backstop in the hope we simply fold.

Is it really so crazy to want to make sure the backstop isnt a permanent trap?

They shouldnt really have issue with this, but of course to do so would be to give a little ground wouldnt it...

What an odd perspective. The only party "playing brinkmanship" is our government and Prime Minister. The EU agreed a deal with the PM in good time. How are you twisting reality to say it is the EU who are playing brinkmanship?

I don't think you understand the backstop. It fails to be a backstop if it expires. It is there to ensure Ireland doesn't have civil war and a border if the UK and EU fail to reach a deal. Therefore if you put a time limit on it, it is no longer going to work.
 
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There's been no political leadership for leave, so the narrative has been dominated by the federalists in Brussels and apologists in Westminster. I would have been great if leave had let someone like Jenny Jones go into bat for it more, or if Tony Benn had still been around.

Tony Benn? I wouldn't trust that old twister with remains of a Ryanair cheese sandwich.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/12/un-big-mess-how-rest-of-europe-views-brexit

Seven correspondents report on how the UK’s political upheaval has affected its image on the continent

Ireland
The comment slipped out after a long, geeky conversation about Brexit’s potential impact on Ireland’s trade, employment, banking and consumer confidence. “You know, we’d almost forgotten how good it felt to stick it to the Brits.” The speaker shrugged and grinned. “Old habits.”

This was not a grizzled Sinn Féin party activist in west Belfast, but a young business professional in a cafe near the Dublin headquarters of Facebook and Google – the heart of new, globalised Ireland. Yet here was an admission – a declaration – of schadenfreude echoing down from a centuries-old resentment at the colonial master who came and stayed for 800 years.

I hear it from officials, shopkeepers, academics, truckers, artists and students: the Irish government is right to insist on the backstop, and if that gives Britain’s ruling class an aneurysm, well, grab some popcorn and enjoy the spectacle.

A tendency to enjoy the neighbour’s discomfort had faded in recent decades. John Major and Tony Blair earned respect for the Good Friday agreement. The Irish economy took off. There was a sense of a fresh start in Anglo-Irish relations.

In the centenary year of Ireland’s war of independence, Brexit seems to have turned the clock back.

But it hasn’t, not really. There is some relish at Westminster’s convulsions – the parliament of Oliver Cromwell reduced to Benny Hill. But the overwhelming emotion is worry that Britain will crash out of the EU without a deal, wreaking havoc on Ireland’s economy and destabilising Northern Ireland.

And there is also sadness. A once-valued diplomatic partner, a neighbour with whom Ireland shares myriad cultural commonalities, is turning away. Glee at Westminster dysfunction is, it seems, an attempt to extract solace from a sense that Britain doesn’t care about breaking Irish hearts.

“Brexit has damaged so many ways of doing business,” says Eunan O’Halpin, a history professor at Trinity College Dublin. “There is a sense that with the British unless it’s written down, you can’t trust anything they say.” Rory Carroll


The Netherlands
“It’s a mixture of bemusement and bewilderment,” says Michiel van Hulten, a former MEP. “On one level it’s entertaining, great spectacle. A pantomime you can’t stop watching. As you know, we love British comedy. Except this isn’t Monty Python, it’s your politicians.”

In June 1667, Samuel Pepys recorded an English MP spluttering: “I think the Devil bricks Dutchmen,” after the Dutch fleet sailed merrily up the Medway and trashed the pride of the Royal Navy.

Anglo-Dutch relations have come a long way since then. Politically, minds met in the EU: pragmatic, and distrusting of a Franco-German stitch-up. In business, dual-nationals Shell and Unilever flourished; more than 80,000 Dutch companies now trade with the UK.

And the people? The Dutch master English like none other; admire and consume British culture in quantity; adore British humour. The Brits were people the Dutch could relate to. Then came Brexit.

It’s bewildering, says Van Hulten. “We had such a close relationship. For a whole postwar generation, the UK was a shining example. People just cannot fathom that a country that played such a vital role internationally, and in Europe, cannot even manage its own affairs.”

Thijs van den Berg, an Amsterdam English teacher, says he feels rejected. “As with any ex-lover, you now dislike what used to attract you. We liked your eccentricity because we knew at heart you were serious. Now you don’t look serious at all. Those jokes, that posturing – it just looks silly. Irresponsible.”

The Dutch, who reckon even a soft Brexit will cost them 3% of GDP, are better prepared than anyone for no deal. And there are silver linings: besides the European Medicines Agency, big-name multinationals such as Sony and Panasonic are shifting their EU HQs to Amsterdam, and 250 more firms are talking about it.

Then there is the fact that Brexit has inoculated them against the Nexit their wilder politicians are still flogging: 72% now say they are best off in the EU.

But mainly, a country they once felt they knew has become a mystery. When parliament sent Theresa May back to Brussels to renegotiate, the Dutch paper Trouw described it thus: “It’s a bit like the crew of the Titanic deciding, by majority vote, that the iceberg really must get out of the way.” Jon Henley
 

Schaeffler, a car parts company, is closing two UK factories because of Brexit, leading to 570 fewer jobs.

I question any article that does not quote correctly.

Juergen Ziegler, regional CEO Europe at Schaeffler, said: "Brexit is clearly not the single decisive factor behind our decision-making for the UK market, but the need to plan for various complex scenarios has brought forward the timing."

So my guess is this was on their radar for a while.

Facebook has an office in Ireland for tax avoidance and has done so for years, but all their decisions are taken out of the London office, this kind of shifting of staff and wealth is nothing new and certainly not just a Brexit thing.

HSBC cut 1200 jobs to India because it offered a cheaper alternative to the UK that was in 2009, thats just one small example of probably 10,000s of jobs from companies moving their operation abroad from the UK for tax, labour and ease of access to markets in asia etc, no one said anything then, that was not Brexit, thats just business, its commercial sense. Sky saved 40 to 50 per cent by basing his operation in eastern Europe.

People talk about Brexiteers and Remainers and all the in fighting, I love to discuss it not argue on it, then you get jumped up no marks like this bloke:

upload_2019-2-13_10-18-22.png
 
I question any article that does not quote correctly.

Juergen Ziegler, regional CEO Europe at Schaeffler, said: "Brexit is clearly not the single decisive factor behind our decision-making for the UK market, but the need to plan for various complex scenarios has bought forward the timing."

So my guess is this was on their radar for a while.

Facebook has an office in Ireland for tax avoidance and has done so for years, but all their decisions are taken out of the London office, this kind of shifting of staff and wealth is nothing new and certainly not just a Brexit thing.

HSBC cut 1200 jobs to India because it offered a cheaper alternative to the UK that was in 2009, thats just one small example of probably 10,000s of jobs from companies moving their operation abroad from the UK for tax, labour and ease of access to markets in asia etc, no one said anything then, that was not Brexit, thats just business, its commercial sense. Sky saved 40 to 50 per cent by basing his operation in eastern Europe.

People talk about Brexiteers and Remainers and all the in fighting, I love to discuss it not argue on it, then you get jumped up no marks like this bloke:

View attachment 5975

it will always be the case that there are multiple factors to where a company locates itself. Wage costs, the trading environment etc all these things will be considered. So there will rarely or never be a cut and dry - it was just 100% Brexit that caused us to move. If wages are lower elsewhere and you are trading with the EU a lot, then it makes sense to move. It is a cumerlative decision. That it is happening now shows it is Brexit related, indeed the companies are saying its Brexit related, and as that is the only variable that has changed, it seems logical that we conclude it is the or a factor that pushes them over the edge and away from the UK. The other thing is companies are not keen to isloate or polarise people in a Terry Christian like way, so they will play down any Brexit cause for obvious reasons.

Terry Christian has always been a twit! I bumped into him in a pub in Maida Vale and credit to him he got the drinks in for about 10 of us!

I completely agree with you, and don't get people who get so upset about it all. The only person I feel slight ire towards is May. Her lack of leadership is frustrating. She's constantly trying to appease others, but fails to impart a vision and take the country to a faviourable place.
 
I completely agree with you, and don't get people who get so upset about it all. The only person I feel slight ire towards is May. Her lack of leadership is frustrating. She's constantly trying to appease others, but fails to impart a vision and take the country to a faviourable place.

I agree although I feel she has been pushed under a bus slightly by DC but witht he right leader I do think we would be in a better Brexit situation.
 
I agree although I feel she has been pushed under a bus slightly by DC but witht he right leader I do think we would be in a better Brexit situation.

You are spot on. Until now, you have to say May has tried to pick up the pieces (of her party and the mandate from the nation) and run with it. What I don't like is if poiticians know what they are suggesting is bad for the UK, then they have a duty to outline and explain it regardless of the vote. Frame the question correctly for the nation. But to pretend everything is fine becuase you're afriad of popularism is not democratic its cowardice. There are very few MPs who said that the UK would be better off post Brexit. Most that did are starting to look quite silly (imo). Like Ian Duncan Smith and others who said 'not one job will be lost to Brexit' or those who said 'negotiating with the EU will be easy' or those who said Brexit will sort UK immigration and the NHS. As these promises fall, these so called leaders can not retain their credibility can they?
 
The vote was born from a hardcore right-wing xenophobic wealthy bunch that fester within what we civilly call the conservative party.
They are a blight on the mainly simple folk of this country, who are more likely to vote for the winner of Strictly X-factor island than any particular political leader.
 
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