Politics, politics, politics

[Rorschach]

I voted to leave the EU because I ultimately felt that we no longer needed to have a large part of our interests controlled by pen pushers at the EU. I think there are a large number of opportunities to leaving.

I feel that the EU has served is purpose for us, like anything there is a time when you move on, our time in the EU is only a small stitch on the tapestry that makes up our history.

We are the 5th largest economy in the world which for me is an opportunity to trade more freely with the world considering 94% of our business is not trading in Europe. You go around the world and countries outside the EU who are huge customers or potential customers believe in independant Britian. Australis is a tiny economy and they managed to negotiate huge deals globally in just over a year.

Only five per cent of GDP is involved in cross-border trade in goods with EU countries and only 12 per cent overall if you include services. The majority of our trade is with the rest of the world.

Although the bus slogan was seen as a lie I didnt see it as a promise more of a point of view, I took it as "We send money abroad lets spend that here" and I do as horrible and selfish as that sounds believe in that side of coin.

Is the EU a success? I don't think it is an economic success story, a union of red tape and taxation which I think its time to move on from. The EUs growth rate is lower than our and unemployment rates amoungst its members is horendous.

Thats where I stand and why I wanted out, feel free to pick the bones out of it but ultimately I believed and still believe our long term future is out the EU.

So hard brexit then, would that be a fair characterisation of your position?

 

[r-u-s-x]

Out of interst why do you think that is?

Not why you voted Brexit - That you have won a vote and you think its undemocratic to not fulfil the outcome.

I personally feel that an informed vote is more democratic than an uniformed vote, the information we now have was not available 3 years ago.

* I also have issues with the way the vote was presented and to be a "true will of the people " it should have been a transferable vote with another stage dictating what Brexit would mean, feel it is more democratic not to throw away ~half of the electorate.

 

[r-u-s-x]

Tories and neo-liberalism only became associated by Thatcher in the late 70s. The longer-standing one nation tradition, and the wing that May comes from, is much more protectionists/Keynesian.

You think the current tory party is Keynesian? wow.

Can you show any policy that wants less global trade and more State intervention in business in the Tory party?

 

[Gutter Boy]

To revoke it will need another referendum, they wont just unilaterally decide to do so.

OR - itll be a mandate on the manifesto of a party running in a general election.

IMO.

And I dont think the EU will extend unless there is a change in leadership, and of course itll cost us.

Which leads me back to thinking a lot has to happen in the next 8 or so weeks...






Like r-u-s-x I think its more case of apathy than anger.

My opinion of course, but I think many who voted leave and had high hopes of the potential of it will have had them dashed by the abject performance of our government since. In both their "negotiations" with the EU and their inability to hold their own party together. Its been a bloody embarrassment and I do believe many a leave voter would now vote remain if given another shot.

There will always be more extreme types who will no doubt cause some trouble, but IMHO they will be in the minority.

I highly doubt carnage on the steets.

The problem is the damage to democracy. It's breaking the turnover test - that if you lose and election you give up power and let the other side have a go.

It sets a precedent for say the Tories losing the next general election, but not letting Labour take over government, and telling people they have to vote again because a Labour government would cause too much damage

 

[Grays_1890]

Not why you voted Brexit - That you have won a vote and you think its undemocratic to not fulfil the outcome.

Oh ok, yeh well its a fair feeling, I would feel the same if it was a vote for anything at work etc.

Anyway nice chatting I need to get some work done today.

 

[Gutter Boy]

You think the current tory party is Keynesian? wow.

Compared to Osborne, yes - it has moved back a bit in that direction.

Not far, but that's more natural conservatism than the post-Hayek swing

 

[Grays_1890]

The problem is the damage to democracy. It's breaking the turnover test - that if you lose and election you give up power and let the other side have a go.

It sets a precedent for say the Tories losing the next general election, but not letting Labour take over government, and telling people they have to vote again because a Labour government would cause too much damage

I think thats it, people can say that Brexit is different because of how it was presented and what is now on offer but then what do we say in future. Vote for a goverment and if they don't deliver or be seen to deliver on their promise within 6 months to a year we get another vote? If my vote is overturned thats what I would expect TBF, well I wouldnt because its silly but you would be well within your rights to expect it.

I voted for a local MP due to her manifesto saying she would stop a new crossing coming through our area, infact the slogan was "Crossing Stopped" a week after voted in she backed the crossing and was made a Tory Whip and promoted to Under Secretary of State at the Department of Health. So she did very well out of it but she failed on her promise and ultimately lied, I dont get my vote back and neither do those that voted for her. Thats life and thats democracy even if you like it or you don't

 

[Grays_1890]

So hard brexit then, would that be a fair characterisation of your position?

I would take it yeh, I think we have alot to take with us.

 

[r-u-s-x]

Compared to Osborne, yes - it has moved back a bit in that direction.

Not far, but that's more natural conservatism than the post-Hayek swing

but it does not indicate that tory voters (still a global trade free market party) voted Leave because they wanted to see an end to this - meaning your assertion that this was the cause for the leave vote is very likely to be incorrect.

 

[nayimfromthehalfwayline]

I agree. This is why I think the best compromise is the Norway+ option favoured by a majority of MPs (according to Tory Nick Boles on telly earlier). The vote was to leave the EU. As long as that is done, then that's it. If we join EFTA afterwards, if we have a customs union afterwards, if one of the terms of EFTA is free movement, so be it. We will still have left the European Union and that is all that was on the ballot. This is what our MPs would rather deliver than a no-deal Brexit, so they should just get on and do it.

Take personal preference and bias out of it. Read that post again. gonad*s really, isnt it?

"Lets 'technically' fulfil an interpretation of a vague referendum, leave us actually worse off, and call it a win"

Its not a compromise, its stupidity.

the only reason I said to revoke is so we didnt get no deal via the backdoor, I was suggesting revoke only to allow GE / vote if we could not reach an agreement to extend. - it takes 6 months + for a referendum:

https://constitution-unit.com/2018/...t-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/

What is required for a referendum to be held in the UK?

• Legislation – Primary legislation is needed to provide the legal basis for the referendum and to specify details that are not in standing legislation, including the referendum question, the franchise, the date of the referendum, and the conduct rules for the poll (although the latter two are often ultimately left to secondary legislation).
• Question testing – The Electoral Commission has a statutory duty to assess the ‘intelligibility’ of the referendum question, a process that usually takes 12 weeks.
• Preparation for the poll itself – The Electoral Commission and local officials need time to prepare for administering the poll and regulating campaigners. The Commission recommends that the legislation should be clear at least six months before it is due to be complied with.
• Regulated referendum period – The UK’s referendum legislation – the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act(PPERA) – specifies a minimum 10-week campaign period, during which campaign regulation applies.

Amazing to think they went through all that and ended up with such an ambiguous set up the first time round!

Are you suggesting we revoke, on the basis of a second referendum to come? IE, cancel this mess but go through it again if the people say so?

The problem is the damage to democracy. It's breaking the turnover test - that if you lose and election you give up power and let the other side have a go.

It sets a precedent for say the Tories losing the next general election, but not letting Labour take over government, and telling people they have to vote again because a Labour government would cause too much damage

I understand, and even agree in theory - but disagree in this instance.

This isnt a turn around. The vote wasnt last week, and we are just re-running it to get a more favourable result.

The vote was made over 2 years ago, we have been through the process, learned a lot along the way and are at an impasse in how to proceed. A second vote seems a pretty sensible option to break the deadlock.

Particularly as the original vote was so unspecific it meant all things to all people. Many may have voted leave and still feel at this point their vote has been failed.

The fundamental issue, for me, was just how open to interpretation to original vote was.

 

[Baleforce]

there is clearly more definition now, we know we can't get any kind of reasonable deal without a customs union and FoM...

 

[r-u-s-x]

Amazing to think they went through all that and ended up with such an ambiguous set up the first time round!

Are you suggesting we revoke, on the basis of a second referendum to come? IE, cancel this mess but go through it again if the people say so?

The only reason to revoke now (before any meaningful vote) would be to give time for that vote, preference would be to extend it. And then we would have to go through this mess again if the vote dictates but with a clearer mandate. The alternative would be to have a no deal brexit which is not palatable.

It was ambiguous due to arrogance, Cameron is brick and thought there was zero chance that leave would win so didnt prepare for it.

 

[Rorschach]

Won't happen imo. A couple of remain Tories have said they'd do whatever is necessary, (inferring they'd bring the government down) to avoid it. They won't be alone.

Maybe but that is the path the UK is on now and there are literally weeks left. Pulling down the government won't change that.
What options are still open in the timeframe left - a revocation of A50 or an extension accompanied by a plan (or hard brexit). So what is the plan? There is none and precious little time to agree one. I honestly think it is too late now to do anything except pull the brake.

 

[r-u-s-x]

there is clearly more definition now, we know we can't get any kind of reasonable deal without a customs union and FoM...

We can get Canada + but it would mean having NI being in the customs union and a border in the Irish sea. Being part of the UK and part of the EU would be beneficial to NI imo.

 

[Baleforce]

We can get Canada + but it would mean having NI being in the customs union and a border in the Irish sea. Being part of the UK and part of the EU would be beneficial to NI imo.

sorry, I meant what this govt can get, whilst being propped up by the DUP

 

[Parklaner81]

"Lets 'technically' fulfil an interpretation of a vague referendum, leave us actually worse off, and call it a win"

Its not a compromise, its stupidity.

I personally believe that the Norway model represents little more than a tactical stepping stone towards the ultimate goal of remain to many of its proponents. Are we really expected to believe, for example, that the likes of Stephen Kinnock have fully accepted that brexit must happen?

 

[Grays_1890]

Isnt hard Brexit in the plan? I have a friend who is a civil servant and they are planning for it, got systems being set up for it. Calais has a new scanning system for it to make border control my seemless and we are testing the carpark in Kent?

Maybe I am wrong but if that is true seems we are at least weighing up the idea.

 

[the dza]

Take personal preference and bias out of it. Read that post again. gonads really, isnt it?

"Lets 'technically' fulfil an interpretation of a vague referendum, leave us actually worse off, and call it a win"

Its not a compromise, its stupidity.

I kind of agree ha. And yet I still think it's about the best path forward from where we are today because of this:

The fundamental issue, for me, was just how open to interpretation to original vote was.

 

[the dza]

Isnt hard Brexit in the plan? I have a friend who is a civil servant and they are planning for it, got systems being set up for it. Calais has a new scanning system for it to make border control my seemless and we are testing the carpark in Kent?

Maybe I am wrong but if that is true seems we are at least weighing up the idea.

Whilst I don't think that a Hard Brexit has enough upside to be worthwhile, if they really want to do it this way then they need to be realistic. They haven't prepared the country for it and don't have enough time. If they want to go down this route, then there need to be a proper plan that takes all the necessary steps to ensure that we don't just survive it, but thrive under it. And there needs to be time allotted to it, which would mean delaying leaving, or agreeing a long transition period. No good just parking a few bin lorries in Kent and pretending that we're ready when we are not.

 

[Gutter Boy]

but it does not indicate that tory voters (still a global trade free market party) voted Leave because they wanted to see an end to this - meaning your assertion that this was the cause for the leave vote is very likely to be incorrect.

Their core vote is Shire England. Land of village fetes, warm beer and apple crumble. Maidstone say. Their political outlook hasn't changed since the 1910s - its massively protectionist.