Politics, politics, politics

[the dza]

The distribution will matter very much to Labour, or at least it should. It's what's put them in such an awkward position over brexit.

I'm making no assertions whatsoever as to the rights or wrongs of Corbyn's behaviour on this issue, but the briefest look at the numbers shows that 'blaming' brexit purely on tory voters is a very long way short of the full story.

In terms of a General Election, yes it makes things awkward for Labour (the distribution of leave/remain votes). But the referendum was one person, one vote. So all that matters is the overall number and yougov have polled it. It is as clear as day that Cameron and Osborne did not persuade their own voters to vote with them, that's the crux of Brexit. Like I said, compare the voting splits of Labour and Lib Dem voters and it shows that Corbyn (and the Labour Party as a whole) did a reasonable job of taking their voters along with their side of the vote.

The failure of the Remain campaign lies with Cameron and Osborne. Their own voting bloc (people who voted Tory in 2015) told them to go phuck themselves.

 

[scaramanga]

I meant in terms of balance, rather than the legality of what they pay now. Adjusting the burden away from the middle towards the higher earners and private sector.

I'm absolutely not against incentives/rewards for the capable, but pay ratios, rebanded council tax, major second home tax, 28 hour working week and solving the Amazon/Google problem are all things that would improve the situation

I think they have the income tax system right in CZ.

Everyone pays 15% unless you earn more than 5? times the national average, in which case the overage is paid at an extra few %. It's simple, it's easy to administer and calculate, there are few opportunities or incentives to cheat. It works very well.

 

[scaramanga]

In terms of a General Election, yes it makes things awkward for Labour (the distribution of leave/remain votes). But the referendum was one person, one vote. So all that matters is the overall number and yougov have polled it. It is as clear as day that Cameron and Osborne did not persuade their own voters to vote with them, that's the crux of Brexit. Like I said, compare the voting splits of Labour and Lib Dem voters and it shows that Corbyn (and the Labour Party as a whole) did a reasonable job of taking their voters along with their side of the vote.

The failure of the Remain campaign lies with Cameron and Osborne. Their own voting bloc (people who voted Tory in 2015) told them to go phuck themselves.

Your entire thought process relies on the premise that people always vote along the same party lines and not with the issues. People who wanted Brexit had an incentive to vote for the party with a manifesto promise to hold a referendum.

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

Your entire thought process relies on the premise that people always vote along the same party lines and not with the issues. People who wanted Brexit had an incentive to vote for the party with a manifesto promise to hold a referendum.

People vote in awareness of FPTP. In most constituencies, the manifestos presented them with hobson’s choice on Brexit.

(E2a - sorry, you’re talking about 2015 not 2017. Still disagree re the universal salience, but yes, the Tories successfully fought off the UKIP threat on that basis).

 

[the dza]

Your entire thought process relies on the premise that people always vote along the same party lines and not with the issues. People who wanted Brexit had an incentive to vote for the party with a manifesto promise to hold a referendum.

My thought process relies on the polling evidence that 2/3rds of people who voted Labour and Lib Dems in 2015 voted remain, whilst 2/3rds of people who voted Tory in 2015 voted to leave. You can then add to that the split of voters in the 2017 general election.

Of course, this doesn't fit with the delusion that Remain would have won if only Corbyn walked around with his face painted in the EU flag.

 

[scaramanga]

My thought process relies on the polling evidence that 2/3rds of people who voted Labour and Lib Dems in 2015 voted remain, whilst 2/3rds of people who voted Tory in 2015 voted to leave. You can then add to that the split of voters in the 2017 general election.

Of course, this doesn't fit with the delusion that Remain would have won if only Corbyn walked around with his face painted in the EU flag.

Because those who wanted to Leave would have voted for the party offering a referendum.

 

[ShipOfTheseus]

Of course, this doesn't fit with the delusion that Remain would have won if only Corbyn walked around with his face painted in the EU flag.

Would have helped.

Come on, he refused to share data, he refused to let front benchers share platforms with Tories, he was vacillatory throughout. Every analysis of the referendum points to Corbyn and his team’s obstructionism as a major factor in the result.

 

[the dza]

Would have helped.

Come on, he refused to share data, he refused to let front benchers share platforms with Tories, he was vacillatory throughout. Every analysis of the referendum points to Corbyn and his team’s obstructionism as a major factor in the result.

The analysis of centrists is that when you can blame the left, why bother blaming the right. Brexit is a Tory mess, but it's much better for the sensible centre to say it's Corbyn wot done it. Again, Labour got roughly the same split in their vote as the Lib Dems, who couldn't have been more pro Remain.

Cameron and Osborne called for the referendum and their awful campaign lost it.

 

[the dza]

Because those who wanted to Leave would have voted for the party offering a referendum.

The voters who most wanted an EU referendum made sure by voting Tory...oh wait. UKIP got 3.8 million votes in 2015 and only 594k votes in 2017.

 

[Robspur12]

The large majority of Labour voters and members went out and voted Remain. The reason the UK left the EU is because Tory voters voted for Brexit. That's the fault of Cameron and Osborne, not Corbyn or any other Labour politician. Would those voters have come around if Corbyn (!) shared a platform with them? And what happens to the fortunes of the Labour Party when sharing a platform with Tories in a referendum? Ask Jim Murphy, the former leader of Scottish Labour, who saw the party wiped out up there.

As for the Tories returning to power after 1 Labour term, this happened after Atlee; but the legacy of the Atlee government endured for decades and some of it still does, despite the best efforts of the right-wing in this country. The same could happen again.

Labour offer a lot more than "bash the rich." The 2017 manifesto had a lot of good policies imo and would change the country for the better if implemented.

Stoke on Trent- traditionally Labour voted leave by 69%; Bolton again large swathes of Labour support voted out; Lincolnshire, traditional Labour area voted overwhelmingly out.

It is far too convenient to hide behind the “most Labour supporters voted remain “ line because that was down to the demographic who tend to vote Labour, i.e. young, ethnic minority, young women rather than any intervention on behalf of the Labour Party. Just like we know the demographic which vote Tory tend to vote Leave. Osborne and Cameron had a far harder job turning them around.

In areas where there were largely working class, white people who had concerns over immigration, traditionally Labour voters, Corbyn’s apathy failed to swing the votes towards “remain. “

 

[the dza]

Stoke on Trent- traditionally Labour voted leave by 69%; Bolton again large swathes of Labour support voted out; Lincolnshire, traditional Labour area voted overwhelmingly out.

It is far too convenient to hide behind the “most Labour supporters voted remain “ line because that was down to the demographic who tend to vote Labour, i.e. young, ethnic minority, young women rather than any intervention on behalf of the Labour Party. Just like we know the demographic which vote Tory tend to vote Leave. Osborne and Cameron had a far harder job turning them around.

In areas where there were largely working class, white people who had concerns over immigration Corbyn’s apathy failed to swing the votes towards “remain. “

Right, the 30-odd percent of Labour voters who voted to leave were spread across Labour towns up North, Midlands etc. No argument from me there. So what would Chuka Umunna have said to those voters that would have changed their mind, if he was leader of the Labour Party?

On the one hand, you say that there's a demographic who would vote remain no matter what, and Corbyn or anyone else is irrelevant to them. I don't totally disagree with that. But it cuts the other way. Those Labour voters in Stoke who went for Leave would have told Chuka, or some other centrist cardboard cut-out, to phuck off. And they told Corbyn the same. The views on the EU were entrenched for these voters the same as they are/were for the demographic you cite who would vote Remain no matter what.

 

[scaramanga]

People vote in awareness of FPTP. In most constituencies, the manifestos presented them with hobson’s choice on Brexit.

My brief experience of canvassing suggests there are a significant number of people who will vote "Anyone but Tory" but on the whole, most vote with the issues - even if that means a wasted vote.

 

[scaramanga]

Right, the 30-odd percent of Labour voters who voted to leave were spread across Labour towns up North, Midlands etc. No argument from me there. So what would Chuka Umunna have said to those voters that would have changed their mind, if he was leader of the Labour Party?

On the one hand, you say that there's a demographic who would vote remain no matter what, and Corbyn or anyone else is irrelevant to them. I don't totally disagree with that. But it cuts the other way. Those Labour voters in Stoke who went for Leave would have told Chuka, or some other centrist cardboard cut-out, to phuck off. And they told Corbyn the same. The views on the EU were entrenched for these voters the same as they are/were for the demographic you cite who would vote Remain no matter what.

And the same goes for those Conservative voters who wanted to leave - nothing Cameron said could or would have changed their minds.

Where Cameron got it wrong was underplaying the strength of his "Help me out or there will be a Leave vote" with the EU. He went out to get some very simple and minor concessions, but the EU told him to fudge off and cemented the opinion that they are arrogant and inflexible.

 

[Robspur12]

Right, the 30-odd percent of Labour voters who voted to leave were spread across Labour towns up North, Midlands etc. No argument from me there. So what would Chuka Umunna have said to those voters that would have changed their mind, if he was leader of the Labour Party?

On the one hand, you say that there's a demographic who would vote remain no matter what, and Corbyn or anyone else is irrelevant to them. I don't totally disagree with that. But it cuts the other way. Those Labour voters in Stoke who went for Leave would have told Chuka, or some other centrist cardboard cut-out, to phuck off. And they told Corbyn the same. The views on the EU were entrenched for these voters the same as they are/were for the demographic you cite who would vote Remain no matter what.

Mate, I understand you are a passionate Corbyn supporter but your points about not making a difference doesn’t really let Corbyn off the hook for not trying, surely? His job is at least attempt to change their minds and to make a case to the Welsh and Cornish Labour Leave voters who received aid and are net exporters to the EU who will be rogered senseless by brexit. It was not a huge swing required, he could and should have tried to make the difference. Instead he sat on his hands. That makes me question his “running the Country” credentials.

Chuka Umuna doesn’t appeal to those white working class voters who are concerned by immigration so that’s a bad example. There are other members of the Labour Party including Corbyn himself who they might have listened to though.

Btw I am no fan of Umuna and other members of the Party who stood back and let Corbyn take the leadership and then just try to undermine him from the sidelines.

 

[Robspur12]

And the same goes for those Conservative voters who wanted to leave - nothing Cameron said could or would have changed their minds.

Where Cameron got it wrong was underplaying the strength of his "Help me out or there will be a Leave vote" with the EU. He went out to get some very simple and minor concessions, but the EU told him to fudge off and cemented the opinion that they are arrogant and inflexible.

Not once their lardy, pie eating hero rode through and stabbed Cameron in the back to assert his leadership credentials. Boris gave credibility to the Leave campaign and was a better campaigner than Cameron. Cameron’s problem was not the deal per se. Most grass roots Tories probably didn’t understand the ins and outs of it.The biggest mistake from Cameron was flip flopping over Europe then failing to make a positive case for remaining.

 

[the dza]

Mate, I understand you are a passionate Corbyn supporter but your points about not making a difference doesn’t really let Corbyn off the hook for not trying, surely? His job is at least attempt to change their minds and to make a case to the Welsh and Cornish Labour Leave voters who received aid and are net exporters to the EU who will be rogered senseless by brexit. It was not a huge swing required, he could and should have tried to make the difference. Instead he sat on his hands. That makes me question his “running the Country” credentials.

Chuka Umuna doesn’t appeal to those white working class voters who are concerned by immigration so that’s a bad example. There are other members of the Labour Party including Corbyn himself who they might have listened to though.

Btw I am no fan of Umuna and other members of the Party who stood back and let Corbyn take the leadership and then just try to undermine him from the sidelines.

I'm biased of course (shocking right?! haha), but I'm not sure what Corbyn would have done for the remain campaign that was credible, given that he's been a lifelong Eurosceptic (as @Gutter Boy will point out). He said he was 7 out of 10 for the EU, that we should remain because the alternative was a Tory Brexit and that he'd want to stay in and change the posted workers directive (something the Tory MEPs were against iirc) to mean that companies here couldn't be employing workers from abroad for less than the minimum wage. He constantly made the positive case for immigration with regards the health service etc. Because I am biased, I paid attention to him saying these things, but the media seemed to act like he never said them. They helped create the narrative of "nobody knows Corbyn's position" because they ignored it, and not by accident imo.

He was right not to share a platform with Tories (again, no credibility at all in him doing so, imo). I know it's silly of me to say, but if he were to walk around with the EU facepaint on, nobody would believe him. I think I'm also biased not just by my support for Corbyn and the left, but also because the way he campaigned for remain chimed with my own vote, in that I voted remain but I could never say I was passionate about it. To me, it was (and still is) the least worst option. There are problems with remaining but they are better than the potential problems of leaving, imo. That seems to me where Corbyn was on it (though I'm sure he is now looking at what he sees as the positives of leaving, given his Eurosceptisism).

 

[the dza]

And the same goes for those Conservative voters who wanted to leave - nothing Cameron said could or would have changed their minds.

Where Cameron got it wrong was underplaying the strength of his "Help me out or there will be a Leave vote" with the EU. He went out to get some very simple and minor concessions, but the EU told him to fudge off and cemented the opinion that they are arrogant and inflexible.

That is true, there are definitely entrenched blocs of leave and remain. But of all the Tory voters who voted in 2015, 2/3rds went for leave. I'm not sure that Cameron and Osborne couldn't have got another 5% to the remain side of the argument if they had campaigned to their own voters in a much better way. Instead, we had Osborne with his pretend emergency budgets and hyperbole and Cameron being Cameron, summed up by him walking away in the immediate aftermath of the referendum result.

 

[Rorschach]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1043387852560711680

Very good

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Not once their lardy, pie eating hero rode through and stabbed Cameron in the back to assert his leadership credentials. Boris gave credibility to the Leave campaign and was a better campaigner than Cameron. Cameron’s problem was not the deal per se. Most grass roots Tories probably didn’t understand the ins and outs of it.The biggest mistake from Cameron was flip flopping over Europe then failing to make a positive case for remaining.

Cameron's biggest mistake was back tracking on the Lisbon treaty. It started from there, he was always to pro EU and a lying clam.

 

[Danishfurniturelover]

Surely when the editor of the FT is working for the French government the FT can not be trusted and has become a more biased paper then the Guardian or the mail.